Since Mike Leach left Lubbock in 2009, eight wins has been the ceiling for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Can they finally surpass that marker in the 2023 college football campaign, Joey McGuire’s second season as head coach? Our Texas Tech season predictions provide a glimpse into an exciting campaign for Red Raiders fans.
Texas Tech Season Predictions: Predicting the Game-By-Game Results
Using groupthink, College Football Network analysts have painstakingly gone through every game for every team in the Big 12 and across the country.
Picking these games straight up with a projected score using the rosters as up-to-date as the last spring practice, the Texas Tech season predictions indicate what fans can possibly expect for the Red Raiders in 2023.
Week 1 – Texas Tech @ Wyoming: Win, 37-18
Since taking over in 2014, Craig Bohl has consistently made the Wyoming Cowboys one of the best defenses in college football. However, they’ll likely not be a match for the high-powered Texas Tech offense that added upgrades at wide receiver in Drae McCray and at center with former Western Kentucky standout Rusty Staats.
Week 2 – Texas Tech vs. Oregon: Loss, 27-33
Oregon might have lost Kenny Dillingham to Arizona State, but they loaded up in the transfer portal and with one of the best recruiting classes in the nation, not to mention the return of key pieces like Bo Nix, Brandon Dorlus, and running back Bucky Irving. While Texas Tech has the talent to keep it close, the Ducks edge it with the more impactful defense.
Week 3 – Texas Tech vs. Tarleton State: Win, 51-9
Texas Tech is 135-43-14 all-time against non-FBS teams, and our season predictions forecast a 136th win will be added to their résumé when they face Tarleton State in Week 3 of the 2023 college football season. The Texans lost 59-17 to TCU last season, and a similar scoreline shouldn’t be discounted.
Week 4 – Texas Tech @ West Virginia: Win, 31-21
The Mountaineers don’t possess the same level of pass defense that they did in recent years, and it would be a surprise to see Texas Tech not take advantage of that when they travel to Morgantown in Week 4. The Red Raiders are on a four-game winning streak against West Virginia and comfortably dispatched Neal Brown’s team one year ago.
Week 5 – Texas Tech vs. Houston: Win, 31-25
Donovan Smith threw for 2,686 passing yards, completed 64.2% of his pass attempts, and totaled 29 touchdowns for Texas Tech during his career in Lubbock. He’ll line up for Houston in Week 5, hoping to score a win over his former team. However, whoever emerges as the QB1 between Tyler Shough and Behren Morton should be able to outscore their former teammate.
Week 6 – Texas Tech @ Baylor: Win, 24-23
A historically combative defense and upgrades on the offensive line to weaponize their ground game make Baylor a dangerous opponent in the Big 12. Additionally, Texas Tech hasn’t won in Waco since 2017. In a sign of the Red Raiders’ emergence as a Big 12 force, Texas Tech relies on one of the conference’s better run defenses to secure a close win over the Bears in Week 6.
Week 7 – Texas Tech vs. Kansas State: Win, 31-23
Kansas State loses their most productive running back, wide receiver, pass rusher, and cornerback from their Big 12 title-winning 2022 team. While there’s talent on the roster still — both returning and incoming — the Red Raiders continue their momentum by halting a seven-game slide to the Wildcats. Eight of their nine wins over Kansas State have come in Lubbock.
Week 8 – Texas Tech @ BYU: Loss, 28-29
YU’s introduction to the Big 12 enables the first meeting between the two teams since 1940. That last game was a one-point win for Texas Tech, but despite their momentum in the 2023 college football season, the Red Raiders drop a close one on the road. Provo can be a difficult place to visit, and if BYU leans on a bullying ground game, they can cause a surprise in Week 8.
Week 10 – Texas Tech vs. TCU: Win, 30-24
In our 2023 Big 12 season predictions, Texas Tech rebounds after their bye week with a win over national championship runner-up TCU. A victory would bring an end to a four-game losing streak against their in-state rival, where the Red Raiders haven’t won in Lubbock since 2013.
The Horned Frogs are replacing some key parts of their team — including Jim Thorpe-winning cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson — from last season, and that substantial overhaul may prove to be too much to overcome against this ascending Red Raiders team.
Week 11 – Texas Tech @ Kansas: Win, 35-33
Potentially two of the most exciting offenses in the Big 12 this season collide in a Week 11 clash that may decide bowl game destinations for both teams. Texas Tech took advantage of a Jalon Daniels-less Jayhawks team last fall and recorded a comfortable win. While the game should be closer, the Kansas defense might not be strong enough to prevent the same result.
Week 12 – Texas Tech vs. UCF: Win, 33-25
Texas Tech was one of just four Big 12 teams that allowed less than 20 rushing touchdowns last fall, and there’s no reason to believe their defense won’t be equally combative against the ground game despite the departure of Tyree Wilson. Gus Malzahn’s UCF offense leans heavily on the ground, giving the Red Raiders the advantage over the former AAC team.
Week 13 – Texas Tech @ Texas; Loss, 31-33
While Texas Tech’s offense has proven too much for most Big 12 teams in our season predictions, they meet their match in Week 13. With a developing Quinn Ewers, a dangerous one-two punch at WR, the conference’s best running back room, and a maturing offensive line, we’re backing Texas to be a tough team to beat in the 2023 college football campaign.