Renowned tennis coach Patrick Mouratoglou believes Carlos Alcaraz will not be at full fitness for the Australian Open 2026 final against Novak Djokovic and has tipped the Serbian legend as the favorite to lift the trophy.
Alcaraz booked his place in the Melbourne final after a gruelling semifinal battle against Alexander Zverev that saw him struggle with cramps for long stretches of the match. While the young Spaniard ultimately prevailed, Mouratoglou feels the physical toll could heavily impact him in the championship clash.
Speaking about Alcaraz’s condition, the French coach expressed doubts over the world No. 1’s recovery ahead of the final:
“When it comes to Alcaraz, even though he’s very young, he did cramp almost two sets. Cramping for two sets: There will be consequences for sure. I don’t believe he’s going to be 100% for the final.”
The former coach of Serena Williams emphasized that despite the Spaniard’s exceptional talent and resilience, the physical demands of his semifinal could leave him vulnerable against a player of Djokovic’s caliber.
On the other side of the net stands Djokovic, who is chasing an unprecedented 25th Grand Slam title. It is a milestone that would further cement his legacy as the greatest player in tennis history.
Mouratoglou highlighted just how much is at stake for the Serbian, while also pointing out the mental pressure he will be under:
“For Novak it would be 25 Grand Slams. That’s huge. He has been stopped every time by those two guys (Sinner and Alcaraz). He beat one. He needs to beat the second and that would be so huge. How is he going to be mentally? Ready? For sure.
“But how nervous is he going to be and how much is going to be able his play his game being nervous? And in a way it’s the same question for different reasons for Carlos. It’s better for him to play Novak than to play Sinner on the paper.”
He ultimately backed the Serbian with previous records, adding:
“I think Novak can beat Alcaraz, he won more than he lost against him. He beat him two times in big moments: Last year in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, and he beat him in the final of the Olympic Games.
“So he knows how to beat him. Sometimes he’s just outplayed by Alcaraz when Alacarz is playing his best and is free. Probably Alcaraz will not be a 100% physically. mentally he is struggling in that tournament.”
Here is Mouratoglou’s full prediction:
The highly anticipated match between the two legendary players will take place Sunday at Rod Laver Arena.
Carlos Alcaraz Weighed in on his Semifinal Clash Against Alexander Zverev
After besting Alexander Zverev in the semifinal of the Australian Open on Friday, Carlos Alcaraz addressed the media. One of the reporters questioned him about the intensity of the match, to which the Spaniard responded, stating that it was one of the ‘most demanding’ matches of his career (0:18 onwards):
