Here are the top tennis picks, best bets, and reliable predictions for the day from the round-of-32 matches at the Madrid Open. Coco Gauff will take on Romanian veteran Sorana Cirstea in her R3 match at Manolo Santana arena on Sunday.
Jessica Pegula will also be in action, taking on Marta Kostyuk in R3 at the Arantxa Sanchez stadium in the evening session. Besides these two, we will bring you our top picks from three more matches on the day, featuring an array of WTA and ATP stars in action at the Masters 1000 event.
Top Tennis Picks and Best Bets Today
Coco Gauff vs. Sorana Cirstea: Set Spread, Cirstea +1.5 (+105)
This will be the third match between Gauff and Cirstea, and the second this year. The 22-year-old American holds a 2-0 lead in their head-to-head, with both matches requiring a deciding set. This season, Gauff’s record on clay is 2-1, while Cirstea is 6-1, with strong runs in Linz and Rouen.
Although the reigning French Open champion is favored to win tonight’s tie, we expect Cirstea to win at least one set, as she has in their previous two encounters, including the latest at the Miami Open. Expect Cirstea to cover the set spread today and make things challenging for Gauff.
Jiri Lehecka vs. Alex Michelsen: Set Spread, Lehecka -1.5 (+105)
This will be the second professional match between Jiri Lehecka and Alex Michelsen. Their only previous encounter was at the 2024 Australian Open, where the American defeated the Czech player 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 to move on to the next round. This year, both players have similar records on tour, making this match exciting.
Lehecka has reached at least the quarterfinals in three tournaments this season, with his best performance at Indian Wells, where he reached the final. Michelsen has also frequently advanced to the round of 16 in several events.
However, neither player has shown strong results on clay yet. The Czech player appears to be moving well on red clay, and his baseline groundstrokes will be an interesting aspect to watch. For these reasons, we predict Lehecka will win in three sets and cover the spread.
Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk: Set Spread, Pegula -1.5 (+140)
This is set to be one of the day’s most anticipated matches, as two players with perfect claycourt records so far this season lock horns at the Madrid Open. Pegula and Kostyuk will face each other for the seventh time on tour, with the American holding a 4-2 edge in the head-to-head series.
Both players are fresh off WTA 500 titles on clay and have perfect records from their triumphant runs in Charleston and Rouen. We expect a three-setter today, with Pegula covering the spread and advancing to the next round. Expect an end-to-end battle between the Pegula and Kostyuk as they square off on clay for the first time on tour.
Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar: Set Spread, Jodar -1.5 (+165)
Here is our bold prediction of the day: Rafael Jodar will knock out fellow teenage sensation Joao Fonseca in R3. Homeboy Jodar has made two highly impressive runs at claycourt events in Hassan, Morocco (final) and the Barcelona Open (semifinal). The 19-year-old Spaniard is 13-7 for the season and looks in great form.
Fonseca reached the quarterfinals at both the Monte Carlo Masters and the BMW Open, but has yet to deliver a strong result against any top name on tour. This is expected to be a fiery clash between two rising stars in men’s tennis, but we are leaning toward the homeboy for the win. We predict Jodar will cover the spread and advance to the round of 16.
Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina: Set Spread, Rybakina -1.5 (-150)
This will be the fifth professional meeting between Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng. The Kazakh player leads their head-to-head 3-1, with their latest clash coming at the Qatar Open in Doha, where the current Australian and Stuttgart Open champion won in three sets. This will also be the first time they meet on clay.
While Rybakina is the strong favorite to win, we also favor her, but do not recommend betting on the moneyline or the total games under. Instead, consider betting on Rybakina to cover the spread and reach the Round of 16 for the eighth consecutive tournament this season.
*All bets and wagers sourced from BetMGM
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