The Australian Open is set to start in Melbourne, and Day 1, on January 18, already promises fireworks. While the top names like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and more dominate headlines, there are a few dangerous matchups where underdogs can flip the script early.
Alexander Zverev, in particular, has a tricky opener against a big-serving Canadian who can turn the match into a pressure cooker quickly. Beneath the star power at the tournament, this opening slate crackles with hidden volatility: fresh hard courts reward bold serves, and home crowd energy can flip momentum in a single tiebreak.
Without further ado, let’s look at the upset alerts that will prove beneficial for underdogs on Day 1 at the Australian Open.
1. Gabriel Diallo – Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev’s 2026 season didn’t pan out as expected. He opened his season at the United Cup, representing Germany, where his progress seemed to be a little slow. He made his way to the quarterfinals, where he squared off against Hubert Hurkacz and met an unexpected loss, marking his first exit of the year. He was clearly seen in frustration as he smashed his racket mid-match.
The same instance occurred while he was practicing for the Australian Open with Alex de Minaur. He exploded after a sliced backhand return caught the net, and he moved toward his bench, banging the racket over the electronic boards. This raises a question over the Germans’ mindset: Is it steady enough to handle a serious title run in Melbourne?
He had a strong appearance at the 2025 Australian Open, reaching the finals against Jannik Sinner. The latter eventually lifted the Grand Slam’s trophy. He faced the same pattern during the entire season, as he reached several finals and semi-finals but fell short of winning any title except for Munich.
Even though Zverev carries the pedigree and experience deeper into majors, this season has looked less consistent so far for him, making his opponent Diallo an underdog.
The German occasionally starts slow in opening matches, and the Canadian’s aggressive style can force errors from top seeds early. There are chances of the latter breaking early and dictating the pace from the baseline and pushing Zverev into uncomfortable territory.
In a Day 1 environment with fresh courts and adrenaline, this is the kind of clash where one loose service game can snowball into a genuine bracket-buster.
2. Cameron Norrie vs Benjamin Bonzi
Seed 26, Cameron Norrie, will take on unseeded Benjamin Bonzi in the first round of the Australian Open on January 18. The latter is entering as an underdog against the Brit, but several points indicate his victory against Norrie. Their head-to-head record is 1-0, which is led by Bonzi. He outlasted Norrie in the final in Metz in 2025, claiming a straight-set win.
This showcased the French’s ability to neutralize Norrir’s lefty spin in tight moments. Even though they haven’t met on a hardcourt before, Bonzi’s baseline consistency prevailed over Norrie then, and Melbourne’s faster pace could amplify his flatter groundstrokes to disturb the Brit’s rhythm early.
Both players experienced a shaky start to the 2026 season, considering their early exits in the Brisbane International, Adelaide International, and ASB Classic. Bonzi’s cross-court backhands to counter Norrie’s forehand control and grinding longer rallies can help me gain dominance in the game.
Even though Norrie favors tiebreak composure, the Frenchman’s punchier returns can steal service games outright, turning a tight showdown into a situation the No. 28 seed isn’t yet dialled for.
3. Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby
Alexander Bublik is the favorite in his clash against Jenson Brooksby on Day 1 of the Australian Open. However, despite that, the latter has a pathway to advance because his game style directly challenges Bublik’s weaknesses and affects his planning on the hard court.
Brooksby leads their head-to-head (1-0). They met each other at the 2022 Canadian Open, where he claimed a 6-2, 6-3 victory. In this game, the American’s changes in tempo, depth, and skill to absorb pace neutralized Bublik’s first-strike aggression and led to his loss.
The contrast between their styles can be a problem for Bublik for his season opener at the 2026 Australian Open. If Brooksby follows the same strategy as his first match against him by extending rallies on the Kazakh’s service games and maintaining his calm demeanor and relentless point construction, he can nab the win.
Also read:
Australian Open 2026 Round 1: Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler Prediction, Odds & Best Bet
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