New Mexico Bowl Prediction: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

    Bowl season continues with New Mexico State and Fresno State. Step this way for the latest odds, DFS picks, and a New Mexico Bowl prediction.

    College football bowl season continues with an exciting New Mexico Bowl matchup between the 10-4 New Mexico State Aggies of CUSA and the 8-4 Fresno State Bulldogs of the Mountain West.

    Fresno State has historically had the better of the Aggies, but will that prove irrelevant on Saturday? Ahead of the game, we’ve got the latest college football betting odds, DFS picks, and a New Mexico Bowl prediction.

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    New Mexico Bowl Betting and DFS Preview

    All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023. Want to take advantage of the New Mexico Bowl odds? Visit the College Football Network live college football odds page to place bets in your state.

    • Spread
      New Mexico State -3.5
    • Moneyline
      New Mexico State -185, Fresno State +154
    • Over/Under
      51 points
    • Game time
      5:45 p.m. ET
    • Location
      University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      49 degrees, 8 mph winds, potential showers
    • How to Watch
      ESPN, FuboTV

    Got a good feeling about Fresno State? Looking to make a little money on New Mexico State? If you’re going to take advantage of the New Mexico Bowl odds, consider some of the following factors before you part with your hard-earned cash.

    After a remarkable second season under Jerry Kill, New Mexico State enters this matchup with Fresno State as a favorite, flying in the face of historical balance between the two teams. The Bulldogs hold an 18-1 winning record over their New Mexico Bowl opponent, winning the last clash back in 2019.

    Other Bowl Game Predictions: LA | Independence

    This isn’t the same Aggies team of old, however, and despite losing several players to the transfer portal, there’s every reason to believe that New Mexico State can live up to their billing as favorite. Don’t forget, they’ve already won in this stadium once this fall.

    They say good teams win, great teams cover, and head coach Kill has the Aggies primed for program greatness. They’ve failed to cover just twice in their last 10 games and have covered every game as a favorite since the season-opening anomaly against UMass. Fresno State is just 4-8 covering this year. The Bulldogs are 8-4 for games going over the points line, which this might.

    Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

    New Mexico State Depth Chart | Fresno State Depth Chart

    • QB Diego Pavia, New Mexico State
    • QB Mikey Keene, Fresno State
    • RB Jamoni Jones, New Mexico State
    • RB Star Thomas, New Mexico State
    • RB Ahmonte Watkins, New Mexico State
    • RB Malik Sherrod, Fresno State
    • RB Elijah Gilliam, Fresno State
    • RB Devon Rivers, Fresno State
    • WR Chris Bellamy, New Mexico State
    • WR Jonathan Brady, New Mexico State
    • WR Kordell David, New Mexico State
    • WR Erik Brooks, Fresno State
    • WR Jalen Moss, Fresno State
    • WR Jaelen Gill, Fresno State
    • WR Mac Dalena, Fresno State
    • TE Thomaz Whitford, New Mexico State
    • TE Tre Watson, Fresno State

    There are six college football games on Saturday to compile your DFS team from. If you’re new to DFS, Fanduel Superflex contests require you to select a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a “Superflex” that can be any of the above or a tight end.

    Your New Mexico Bowl picks start with at the quarterback position, where Aggies phenom Diego Pavia is expected to return following injury in the CUSA Championship Game. The New Mexico State has been as close to a sure thing as you’ll find in football this fall, with his 325.9 fantasy points ranking seventh amongst all quarterbacks.

    MORE: Top New Mexico State and Fresno State Players Not Playing in the New Mexico Bowl

    Even without some of his offensive weapons, Pavia’s game-changing dual-threat ability makes him an indispensable weapon. Although he leads the team in yards and targets, WR Jonathan Brady has lost out on touchdown targets to Trent Hudson. With the latter in the portal, Brady should benefit and be well-placed to add to his 93.8 fantasy points to end the 2023 college season.

    No other Fresno State player has more touchdowns than Malik Sherrod, and the Bulldogs running back might be a value add at the running back position. He’s scored three touchdowns in the last two games while coming into the New Mexico Bowl off the back of a two-score, 182-total-yard game against San Diego State.

    Prediction for the New Mexico Bowl

    Okay, so we’ve furnished you with the New Mexico Bowl odds and some DFS picks. Now, it’s time to close this thing out with our prediction. Can New Mexico State win back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1959-1960? Or will Fresno State upset the favorites to win a second New Mexico Bowl in three seasons?

    A pre-season contender for the Mountain West title, Fresno State flew out to a 5-0 record, beating two Power Five programs in the process to establish themselves as a front-runner for the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six. However, they fell away down the stretch, losing their final three games as injuries to quarterback Mikey Keene took their toll on the program.

    MORE: Top 10 Transfer Portal Departures From the MWC

    When healthy, Keene has the ability to take over a game. This Bulldogs team also has legit weapons surrounding him with running back Sherrod and a dangerous WR duo in Erik Brooks and Jalen Moss. Meanwhile, their defense possesses star talent like Levelle Bailey but has suffered from the loss of lockdown cornerback Cameron Lockridge, who played just four games.

    The Aggies will be without a defensive talisman of their own for the New Mexico Bowl, with cornerback Reggie Akles taking his team-high six pass breakups in to the transfer portal. However, there are plenty of other playmakers from a unit that has allowed just 21.8 points per game this season to think that New Mexico State can handle the Bulldogs’ bark and bite.

    The true difference maker in the New Mexico Bowl lays with the Aggies and quarterback Pavia. There are few teams that have been able to contain him this season, and he returns to the site of the infamous urination incident of earlier in the season to leave a more tasteful mark on University Stadium.

    Prediction: New Mexico State 31, Fresno State 21

    Miss any action from the top college QB Rankings during the 2023 football season? Want to track all the movement with the college football’s transfer portal? College Football Network has you covered with that and more!

    College Football Transfer Portal Tracker

    Never miss a beat with the CFN-exclusive College Football Transfer Portal Tracker, listing the student-athletes entering and exiting the transfer portal.

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