The Missouri Tigers roll into Starkville with a 7-3 record and a No. 23 national ranking, still feeling the sting of last week’s narrow 34-30 loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks. This season has showcased moments of brilliance for the Tigers, but their SEC journey has been uneven, sitting at 3-3 in conference play.
Meanwhile, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are navigating a tough rebuilding phase. At 2-8 overall and winless in the SEC, the team is in search of a spark. Their latest outing—a 33-14 defeat to Tennessee—underscored their ongoing struggles. Can our Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction shed light on whether the Bulldogs can find the answers they so desperately need?
Missouri vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -13.5 - Spread
Missouri -9.5 - Moneyline
Missouri -355, Mississippi State +280 - Over/Under
58 points - Game time
4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, MS - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, mostly cloudy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
This line opened with the Tigers as -5.5 point favorites, but that number has climbed to 8. The spread has stayed between those two numbers and likely won’t climb much higher before kick on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total opened at 56.5 and has climbed to 57.5 by a full point, but it has settled at 57 for now. This is likely to see more action and will continue to move before Saturday’s kickoff.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Tigers have an 83.5% chance of defeating the Bulldogs on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Missouri will finish with a 9-3 record and a 5-3 SEC record. With those two wins and a bowl game win, Missouri would finish with double-digit wins for the second time in the Eli Drinkwitz era.
- at Mississippi State: 83.5%
- vs. Arkansas: 61.1%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Mississippi State has a 16.5% chance of defeating Missouri on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Bulldogs would finish 2024 with a record of 2-10. This would be the worst finish for a Mississippi State football team since 2003, when the Bulldogs finished 2-10 in Jackie Sherril’s final season at the helm.
- vs. Missouri: 16.5%
- at Ole Miss: 2.8%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Mississippi State
Brady Cook continues to steer Missouri’s offense with precision, amassing 1,812 passing yards and eight touchdowns. On the ground, Nate Noel leads the charge with 684 yards and three touchdowns on 122 carries, while Marcus Carroll adds a bruising presence with 427 yards and seven scores.
Theo Wease Jr. headlines the receiving corps with 637 yards and three touchdowns, complemented by the explosive Luther Burden III, who has tallied 574 yards and five touchdowns.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Returning to Starkville after a tough stretch, managing just two wins in their last 10 games, the Bulldogs are coming off a difficult loss to Tennessee, where their defense gave up 452 yards while the offense sputtered, producing only 271 total yards and committing two turnovers.
Missouri’s offense has faced some bumps in recent weeks, but their defense has been clutch, holding opponents to under 60% completions—a key benchmark for success. Their only loss in such scenarios came against Oklahoma, which required a near-miraculous comeback to seal the deal.
Mississippi State, sitting at a 59% completion rate, will need to shake off its struggles through the air to stay competitive. Expect the Bulldogs to throw everything they have at Missouri, but the Tigers are likely to rely on their steady ground game, running the ball 35-40 times to control the clock and dictate the pace.
With a disciplined, methodical approach, Missouri grinds out a hard-fought win, pulling away in the later stages.
Prediction: Missouri 36, Mississippi State 23
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