The Duke Blue Devils are rolling in ACC play, thanks in large part to superstar freshman Cooper Flagg. The 18-year old phenom has hit his stride this season with back-to-back 20-point games.
So, can he and the Blue Devils stay hot, or will the NC State Wolf Pack find some of last year’s late-season magic? Find out our thoughts on the spread and total in this NC State vs. Duke prediction.
NC State vs. Duke Betting Preview
All NC State vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. The CFSN spread comes from our expert Power Rankings.
- CFSN Spread
Duke -20 - Spread
Duke -21.5 - Moneyline
Duke -3600, NC State +1500 - Over/Under
133.5 points - Game Time
Monday, Jan. 27, 8:30 ET - Location
Cameron Indoor Arena | Durham, NC - How To Watch
ESPN
Duke is riding a 13-game winning streak, covering in eight of those games. However, the Blue Devils have been less automatic as double-digit favorites during the winning streak, covering in just five of 10 such games.
The Wolfpack are on the opposite side of things, 2-6 in conference play, both straight up and against the spread. The under has hit in five of those games, as the Wolfpack have reached 70 points just twice against major conference competition.
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Both the spread and total have dropped since the opening, as Duke opened as a 22.5-point favorite with an over/under of 134.5 points. Those numbers have since come down to their current standing at 21.5 points and 133.5 points, respectively.
NC State’s Winning Probability
Our power rankings metric doesn’t give NC State much of a chance in this one, implying that the Wolfpack is a 20-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 2.1%. Obviously, this is college basketball and crazier things have happened, but our metric, like the sportsbooks, expects a Duke blowout.
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Duke’s Winning Probability
Conversely, our power rankings metric loves the Blue Devils in this one, giving them a 97.9% chance to win. That translates to a spread of 20 points. Cooper Flagg is the engine that makes the Blue Devils go and our metric loves the Blue Devils to continue winning, favoring them in every remaining regular season game.
Prediction For NC State vs. Duke
The Blue Devils are rolling, but the winning streak hasn’t been without its hiccups, as they’ve had to stave off huge comebacks from Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Auburn. In all three of those games, the Blue Devils were coasting midway through the second half before nearly blowing a double-digit lead.
For that reason, I don’t love the 21.5-point spread here. The Blue Devils have blown out their fare share of opponents, but they’ve also let teams hang around.
I don’t think they’re in danger of an outright upset, but I’m not ready to assume a blowout either.
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I’m especially wary with such a low total. As it stands, the combination of spread and total implies a final score of 78-56. While the Blue Devils have an elite defense and a pace-of-play that can lead to those types of scores, I’m not ready to run to the sportsbook and hammer the Blue Devils.
Instead, I’m looking at another bet involving the Blue Devils’ superiority.
While Duke has been a first-half team, the Wolfpack (with two notable exceptions) have been a second-half team. They’ve fared better in the second half of four of their last five games.
Accordingly, I prefer DraftKings’ first-half spread of Duke -12 to the game spread of -21.5. Flagg has been unstoppable in recent games, but with the North Carolina game on Saturday (College basketball’s best rivalry) I think Jon Scheyer could take a more-conservative late-game approach.
Flagg is due for a rare college basketball triple-double soon, but that will likely have to wait as there are more important games down the stretch.
The Wolfpack don’t shoot the ball particularly well, and the Duke defense is suffocating. I think the Blue Devils will get ahead early and coast to victory in another ACC blowout to set up a huge rivalry game with the Tar Heels Saturday.
Expect Flagg to have a huge game again, particularly as a passer, in another easy win for the Blue Devils. And while I prefer the first-half spread, I do think the Blue Devils ultimately cover here in a game that goes slightly over the total.
Prediction: Duke 84, NC State 61
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