The 2026 NCAA Tournament is around the corner, and it comes with its annual tradition of picking the contenders most likely to fall from grace. Every year, teams that looked unbeatable in the regular season always find themselves headed home earlier than expected. And this year, expect no different.
The four No. 1 seeds heading into this tournament are Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida. All of the top brackets look solid on paper. But plenty of teams below them carry qualities that are hard to ignore. ESPN‘s Jay Bilas has shared a pretty authentic picture of how the tournament could look going forward. So, here are five programs that could face a hard time in the March Madness.
1. Duke (No. 1 Seed, East Region)
Duke enters as the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. However, the path ahead looks quite challenging. Duke is set to face UConn, Michigan State, and Kansas. As per certain metrics, the East is considered the toughest of the four regions. Duke’s roster depth could be a matter of concern with injured starters potentially affecting its rotation. A slip in the latter rounds sounds more likely than it is supposed to.
2. Nebraska (No. 4 Seed, South Region)
This season, Nebraska has emerged as one of the top teams in the nation. The Cornhuskers climbed as high as No. 5 in the nation with a 20-0 start, but fell 6-6 in their last 12 games. The Cornhuskers have allowed at least 74 points in five of their last 12 matchups, while allowing that much just thrice during their initial 20-0 run. If this continues, the team could see an early exit from the tournament.
3. Kansas (No. 4 Seed, East Region)
The Kansas Jayhawks have the pedigree and the roster to make a deep run. However, based on their last performance, it seems otherwise. Kansas scored only 47 points in its Big 12 loss to Houston, by far the lowest output this season. If that kind of offense continues heading into March Madness, it could invite trouble regardless of the talent on paper.
4. North Carolina (No. 6 Seed, South Region)
UNC’s tournament hopes took a major hit after Caleb Wilson’s injury. The committee took into account Wilson’s injury, and it’s worth noting that the Tar Heels would have been seeded fifth had he been healthy. However, without Wilson, North Carolina has a lower ceiling, and VCU could be a very fair upset in the first round. Facing hungry mid-major programs could be one of the breaking points for UNC in such moments of crisis.
5. Kentucky (No. 7 Seed, West Region)
Kentucky’s name carries weight in March, but this year, the program hasn’t been as reliable. The Wildcats have been inconsistent and are facing Santa Clara that carries positional size at nearly every position on the floor. As Jay Bilas puts it, Kentucky could very well disappoint in the opening round. For a program that expects Final Four runs, a first-round exit to a mid-major would be one of the biggest shocks of the tournament.
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