The Virginia Cavaliers will host the Duke Blue Devils on Monday night fresh off three consecutive victories, lifting themselves out of the bottom of the ACC standings. The team at the top is none other than the Blue Devils, who have national championship aspirations.
Can the Cavaliers pull off arguably the biggest upset of the season or will Duke further strengthen their hold at the top of the conference standings?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets for this ACC matchup in Charlottesville.
Duke vs. Virginia Betting Preview
All Duke vs. Virginia odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Feb. 17, 2025.
- Spread
Duke -14.5 - CSN Spread
Duke -17 - Moneyline
Duke -1600, Virginia +860 - Over/Under
130.5 points - Game Time
Monday, Feb. 17, 8:00 p.m. ET - Location
John Paul Jones Arena | Charlottesville, VA - How To Watch
ESPN
Duke comes in with a 22-3 overall record, including 14-1 in conference. They’re 15-10 ATS this season and 9-6 in ACC play. On the road, the Blue Devils are 6-2 — however, of their last four outings, they’ve only covered one game.
One of the top defensive teams in the country, 11 of Duke’s 25 games have gone under the listed point total. In the ACC, eight of 15 matchups have gone over, including four of the last six.
Virginia enters with a 13-12 overall record having won three straight games. They’re 6-8 in conference, good for a four-way tie for ninth place. The Cavaliers have covered 12 of 25 outings on the season, with an 8-6 record ATS in the ACC. They’ve covered three straight games as part of their three-game winning streak.
By the numbers, Virginia is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging only 64.6 ppg as team. Vegas knows this, however, and a surprising 15 of their 25 games have surpassed the over. Similarly, seven of their last eight games have gone over — with the line being close to 130.5 in each game.
Duke vs. Virginia CSN Power Rankings Line
Our metrics have Duke favored by -17, only 2.5 points higher than the current listed line of -14.5. Duke is No. 1 in our power rankings, while Virginia is further down, occupying the No. 55 spot.
The advantage, while slight, lies with the Blue Devils despite being on the road.
Preview for Duke vs. Virginia
Duke will be looking for their first road win since suffering their lone defeat in ACC play, a 77-71 defeat at the hands of the Clemson Tigers at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have seemed to find their footing after a rough go of it this season following the surprising retirement of head coach Tony Bennett at the beginning of the season.
Interim head coach Ron Sanchez has them peaking at the right time, finally scoring well over a consistent stretch for the first time this season.
Junior guard Isaac McKneely is averaging 13.7 ppg but has had two of his best scoring games in his past two outings, putting up 20 and 22 points.
Fellow guard, sophomore Dai Dai Ames has also come into his own; during the Cavaliers’ three-game win streak, he’s averaging 18.6 ppg, a far cry from his season average of 7.8 ppg. They’ll need another big game from him if they hope to compete against Duke.
Junior forward Elijah Saunders is the teams’ second-leading scorer at 11.1 ppg while grabbing 5.4 rpg, providing a solid presence down low. His matchup in this game won’t be easy.
The Blue Devils’ freshman phenom Cooper Flagg has lived up to expectations, making the Naismith Men’s Midseason Team. He leads Duke in every major stat category, filling up the stat sheet every night. Fellow freshman Kon Knueppel has been an excellent side-kick, averaging 13.0 ppg on 37.7% shooting from beyond the arc.
Junior guard Tyrese Proctor, a former five-star recruit, has played the best basketball of his career over the past three weeks. Over the past five games, Proctor is averaging 19.4 ppg, an uptick from his normal average of just over 12 points a night.
If he has another excellent performance along with their freshman duo, it’ll be extremely hard for Virginia to pull off the upset.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
While Virginia has won three in a row, they’ve still been one of the worst teams in the ACC this season. Their offense has been far below-average this season — just scratching the surface of average over the past two weeks.
The Blue Devils are just on a different level. Since their loss to the Tigers on Feb. 8, Cooper Flagg and Co. have won by 21 and 36 points. They’ve come out with a renewed focus defensively and combined that with hot shooting, scoring 106 points in their last outing.
That focus will continue against the Cavaliers. Our metrics already point towards the line of -14.5 being too low — we’ll take the numbers in addition to the eye test and take Duke’s side of the line.
The point total of 130.5 is questionable.
Duke scores at a rate of 81.0 ppg, good for 25th in the nation. Even if they give up just 50 points, reaching their average scoring total would push this game past the over.
KEEP READING: Top 10 NIL Deals in Men’s College Basketball
We’ll go over 130.5 — it’s simply too low of a total for a game the Blue Devils will be involved in.
Although Virginia has seemingly found their footing as of late, Duke will show no mercy, rolling over the Cavaliers on their own home floor.
Picks: Duke -14.5, Under 130.5 points
Prediction: Duke 76, Virginia 57
College Sports Network has you covered with the latest news, analysis, insights, and trending stories in football, basketball, and more!
