Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Prediction: Katin Houser Powers Pirates Past Owls

    The Owls have never beaten the Pirates—and Week 11 isn't likely to change that. Here’s why in our Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina prediction.

    The Florida Atlantic Owls and East Carolina Pirates have only faced each other twice, and neither game was particularly close. ECU claimed a commanding 31-13 win in their first meeting back in 2013, then followed it up with a 22-7 victory a decade later.

    Our Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina preview dives into the matchup, providing key betting insights to guide your picks.

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    Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Betting Preview

    All Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      East Carolina -1.5
    • Spread
      East Carolina -8
    • Moneyline
      East Carolina -305, Florida Atlantic +245
    • Over/Under
      58.5 points
    • Game Time
      8:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, Nov. 7
    • Location
      Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium | Greenville, N.C.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      66 degrees, 1 mph winds, mostly cloudy
    • How To Watch
      ESPN2

    This is a good week for ECU against the spread bettors, with the program going 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 11. It also helps that FAU is just 1-4 ATS in their last five contests this season.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    However, for those more interested in the total, the line has gone over in five of the Owls’ previous six outings and four of the Pirates’ last five.

    Florida Atlantic’s Winning Probability

    The Owls haven’t enjoyed a winning season since Lane Kiffin’s final campaign in 2019 (11-3). Since then, it’s been a whole lot of nothing, and this year has been no different under Tom Herman. FAU went 4-8 in his inaugural season, and that’s likely where they’ll finish in 2024.

    • at ECU: 47.5%
    • vs. Temple: 55.6%
    • vs. Charlotte: 50.6%
    • at Tulsa: 49.4%

    East Carolina’s Winning Probability

    The Pirates have a chance to go bowling for just the second time in the last decade, but it won’t be easy. The FPM gives them a win probability over 50% in just one of their remaining games — they need two victories to secure a bowl berth.

    • vs. FAU: 52.5%
    • at Tulsa: 49.4%
    • at North Texas: 32.3%
    • vs. Navy: 32.3%

    Prediction for Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina

    FAU heads into this matchup still searching for its first conference win, and their recent defensive showings haven’t inspired confidence—giving up 44, 38, and 41 points in the last three games. ECU has managed two conference wins, but their defense has been equally porous, allowing 34, 45, and 55 over the same stretch.

    So, who comes out on top in a clash between a moveable object and a stoppable force? It’s all about who can light up the scoreboard.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    The Pirates have a scoring edge, averaging 6.4 more points (30.4 to 24.0) and 31 more yards (397.5 to 366.5) per game than the Owls. And while ECU has a -6 turnover margin compared to FAU’s +2, 12 of those interceptions came from now-benched QB Jake Garcia.

    With new starter Katin Houser proving safer with the ball and showing a lower pressure-to-sack rate, the Pirates are in a better spot. The Owls have struggled to get out of their own way, and Week 11 isn’t likely to change that.

    Prediction: East Carolina 37, Florida Atlantic 27

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