The Boise State Broncos looked the part of a team heading into the College Football Playoffs on Friday night, dismantling the UNLV Rebels to win the Mountain West Championship Game. Following their 21-7 win over the Rebels, the Broncos now have the luxury of a week off as they’ve all but locked up a first-round bye and earned one of the top-four seeds in the playoffs.
Who could they play and which teams have the most bearing on their placement the rest of this weekend?
College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.
Boise State’s Playoff Projections for Each Seed
Let’s start this off by saying one very specific thing- and that there is no telling what the college football playoff selection committee will do on Sunday afternoon. But also, in that same breath, you have to assume that Boise State will remain ranked higher than one or both multi-loss champions from the ACC and the Big 12.
And in doing so, the Broncos are set to earn at least the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed in this year’s 12-team College Football Playoffs. Let’s break down who they could play and how they could get each seed.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It’s also important to note that the top four seeds are given a first-round bye and are given to the four highest-ranked conference champions. That’s important because sitting in between Boise State and a top-four spot are a plethora of teams, but the Broncos are still expected to earn that first-round bye.
So, with all of this in mind, let’s get to projecting.
Boise State As the No. 3 Seed in College Football Playoffs
For Boise State to earn the No. 3 seed, not that much would have to happen, actually. And for both scenarios — them earning No. 3 and No. 4 — we can basically knock out two conference championship games that won’t move the needle for the Broncos (except it may dictate their eventual opponents).
The results from the Big Ten Championship — No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State — and the SEC Championship — No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia — won’t have any weight on where the Broncos are ranked.
That’s because, right now, the rankings sit with just one member of their respective conference championship games in front of Boise State: SMU. If the Mustangs were to lose to Clemson in the ACC, it’s an incredibly likely scenario that Boise State remains the third-highest-ranked conference champion.
The only thing standing in the way of the No. 3 seed would be an SMU victory over Clemson. There isn’t a realm in which the No. 17-ranked Clemson team jumps over Boise State at this point.
And if the Broncos earned the No. 3 seed, with the way the bracket is likely to fall once the conference championship games are played, it’s looking more and more like they could play one of three teams.
The projections for the final iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings — if Oregon and Texas win — are below:
No. 1 Oregon
No. 2 Texas
No. 3 Boise State
No. 4 Arizona State
No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 6 Penn State
No. 7 Georgia
No. 8 Tennessee
No. 9 Indiana
No. 10 Ohio State
No. 11 Alabama
No. 12 Clemson
That means, with this SMU loss in this scenario, the Broncos would await the final result from the No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup — or Penn State vs. Alabama — to find their opponent. This matchup would happen in the Peach Bowl as well.
Right now, our projection is that Alabama will go on the road and lose to Penn State in Happy Valley, thus putting the Nittany Lions against the Broncos in the quarterfinals.
Boise State As the No. 4 Seed in College Football Playoffs
Okay, and now for the other scenario, for Boise State to earn the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Just like them earning the three seed, this one is also relatively easy to depict.
If SMU defeats Clemson, they’d simply stay ranked higher than the Broncos and earn the No. 3 seed. That puts Boise State into the fourth seed all the same, but the rankings look a bit different.
Here’s how the top 12 teams would rank if SMU defeats Clemson (and again, Oregon and Texas win):
No. 1 Oregon
No. 2 Texas
No. 3 SMU
No. 4 Boise State
No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 6 Penn State
No. 7 Georgia
No. 8 Tennessee
No. 9 Indiana
No. 10 Ohio State
No. 11 Alabama
No. 12 Arizona State
This would scenario — with SMU winning — would make Boise State the fourth seed, and give them the luxury of playing the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed matchup — or Notre Dame vs. Arizona State.
The Broncos would take on the highest-ranked at-large team (Notre Dame) or the lowest-ranked conference champion (Arizona State) in this scenario.
Like above, our projections are that Arizona State would travel to Notre Dame and lose a close game against the Irish. That would put Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame in what could only be described as a matchup that would make great fiction authors jealous.
There you have it, though, both scenarios for the Broncos as they enter the College Football Playoffs. The real question, at this point, is which scenario would you rather them have?
The No. 3 seed plays in the Peach Bowl vs. (likely) Penn State or the No. 4 seed playing in the Fiesta Bowl against (likely) Notre Dame?
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.