Every March, millions of fans attempt to create the perfect March Madness bracket, a feat that has yet to be achieved.
However, women’s brackets tend to remain perfect longer than men’s, a trend observed in recent years. In 2023, men’s brackets were busted by game 25, while women’s brackets lasted until game 40. The following year, men’s brackets ended by game 31 whereas women’s brackets survived into the Sweet 16 reaching game 51.
This disparity is largely due to the predictability of the women’s tournament. Unlike the men’s side, where upsets are more frequent, women’s basketball sees fewer surprises, especially among lower seeds.
For instance, in 2024, only one double-digit seed won in the first round of the women’s tournament, making it easier for fans to maintain perfect brackets. Teams like UConn and South Carolina have consistently dominated, reducing the likelihood of early upsets.
Understanding the Predictability Gap in March Madness
In the women’s NCAA tournament, top seeds succeed in advancing more often than they do in the men’s tournament. Since 2000, all women’s tournament champions have been top-three seeds, while No. 1 seeds secured 22 of 28 titles.
Early bracket-busters become significantly less likely because of the predictable nature of the tournament, thus giving fans more time to maintain their perfect brackets. The men’s tournament experiences more unexpected defeats, like during March Madness 2023 when Oakland stunned Kentucky, thus destroying numerous brackets.
In the men’s tournament, upsets like these are common with teams like UMBC famously defeating Virginia in 2018. The 2023 men’s tournament showcased a historic moment after FDU defeated first-ranked Purdue, which shows that the brackets remain unpredictable for men’s basketball.
The women’s tournament maintains less unpredictability due to UConn’s prolonged dominance along with other regular top teams, thus allowing fans to make plausible predictions. Middle Tennessee’s 2024 win against a higher seed during the first round stood out as one of the rare upsets, but fans already predicted this outcome.
The Impact on Bracket Culture
The predictability of the women’s tournament has a significant impact on bracket culture. Fans become more interested in watching the women’s tournament due to the greater probability that their bracket predictions will stay accurate.
The fan engagement creates community spirit because spectators experience mutual excitement when their selected teams gain advancement in a tournament. Fans devote extra attention to the regular season of women’s college basketball, since they can predict bracket results accurately based on analyzing team characteristics.
KEEP READING: 2025 Women’s Bracket Predictions: Who’s In, Who’s Out, and the Biggest Surprises
The cultural significance of maintaining a perfect bracket extends beyond personal satisfaction, as it becomes a badge of honor among friends and family. This badge becomes more achievable in the women’s tournament, making the entire experience better for spectators.
Each game in the tournament increases fan anticipation because people want to observe if their brackets survive the competition, leading to an exciting group watch experience.
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