It’s been 56 years since UCLA and Penn State last faced off, and the Bruins probably wouldn’t mind waiting another. With the Nittany Lions sitting as nearly 30-point home favorites, there’s not much drama expected in this Week 6 Big Ten showdown.
But if you’re bold enough to consider placing a wager, our UCLA vs. Penn State prediction might offer an interesting angle.
UCLA vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All UCLA vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -24.5 - Spread
Penn State -28 - Moneyline
Penn State -9000, UCLA +2500 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, 6 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
Fox
Penn State opened as a 22-point favorite, but the line has increased by six since then. Clearly, the books are giving the Bruins a near-0% chance of pulling off the upset.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
With the over going 1-3 for both teams so far this year, what’s the play? Well, the under has hit in eight of UCLA’s last 10 games and six of Penn State’s last eight.
UCLA’s Winning Probability
With the spread nearing 30, it’s no shock that UCLA’s win probability is a bleak 4.3%. The Bruins are desperate for their first Big Ten victory and hoping to avoid turning their current three-game losing streak into four — though, let’s be honest, that’s probably what we’ll be saying next week.
While the rest of their schedule isn’t quite as brutal, there’s a real chance the City of Angels could end up with a big fat zero. Here’s how UCLA’s win probabilities stack up for the rest of the season:
- vs. Minnesota: 35.9%
- at Rutgers: 18.4%
- at Nebraska: 17.9%
- vs. Iowa: 24.5%
- at Washington: 20.7%
- vs. USC: 16.7%
- vs. Fresno State: 36.9%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
By simple math, the Nittany Lions own a 95.7% win probability in Week 6. It’s not a one-off either, as they are favored to come out on top in all but one of their final seven games.
- at USC: 65.1%
- at Wisconsin: 82.8%
- vs. Ohio State: 49.4%
- vs. Washington: 90.8%
- at Purdue: 92.8%
- at Minnesota: 84.2%
- vs. Maryland: 92.3%
Prediction UCLA vs. Penn State
There’s not much value in backing the Nittany Lions to protect their home turf in Week 6. While they’re likely to cover, a 29-point spread is a tall order.
On the other side, UCLA sits at 1-3, with their lone win coming by a slim 16-13 margin over a struggling Hawaii squad in Week 1. The Bruins rank 128th in scoring, 133rd in rushing, and 105th in scoring defense—hardly inspiring numbers.
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Penn State’s ground-and-pound style limits their scoring ceiling, and their defense should have no trouble containing Ethan Garbers and company. This makes the under the safer play, though things could spiral if UCLA coach DeShaun Foster has already lost control of the locker room.
If you’re feeling bold, hope Penn State grinds the clock with a big enough cushion to cover.
Prediction: Penn State 38, UCLA 6
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