UCF and TCU kick off Big 12, aiming for the top of the reshaped conference. UCF’s strength lies in its talented backfield, one of the nation’s best, but questions remain about their passing game, especially with transfer QB KJ Jefferson’s underwhelming 2024 performance. TCU counters with an explosive offense led by sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover.
This matchup may hinge on which quarterback shines in Fort Worth, with UCF banking on its ground game and TCU relying on Hoover’s strong start in our UCF vs. TCU Prediction.
UCF vs. TCU Betting Preview
All UCF vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 14.
- Spread
TCU -2.5 - Moneyline
UCF +110, TCU -130 - Over/Under
63 - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
98 degrees, Partly Cloudy - How to Watch
Fox
TCU initially opened as the favorite in this one, but the betting public jumped all over UCF +2.5 — so much so that we saw this one completely flip to UCF -2.5.
Quickly, though, the Horned Frogs moved off being home dogs and close the Saturday morning slate at nearly a field goal favorite.
The total hasn’t seen nearly as much movement as the moneylines and spread. It initially opened at 62.5 and dipped to 61 before moving back to 63.
Prediction for UCF vs. TCU
The Horned Frogs’ offense knows its identity and centers around quarterback Josh Hoover. Hoover has been impressive early on, throwing for 620 yards and four touchdowns over two games, ranking 14th nationally and third in the Big 12.
Hoover’s top target has been Savion Williams, who has 16 catches for 154 yards and one touchdown, with twice as many targets and catches as any other TCU receiver. The TCU ground game is anchored by Cam Cook, who has logged 33 carries for 139 yards and four touchdowns.
This trio has been key to TCU’s early success and will be crucial in what promises to be a high-scoring matchup.
For UCF, quarterback KJ Jefferson is still looking to find his rhythm. He hasn’t thrown for more than 170 yards in UCF’s first two games but was pulled early in their season-opening blowout against UNH. Known as one of the premier dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation, Jefferson has the potential for a breakout performance.
RJ Harvey leads UCF’s potent run game with 30 carries for 268 yards and six touchdowns. As both teams lean on their playmakers, this game could come down to whether Hoover can maintain his strong start or if Jefferson and Harvey can take control for UCF.
The outcome of this matchup will hinge on TCU’s defensive line and its ability to contain UCF’s dominant run game, which has averaged over 8 yards per carry in its first two games. UCF leads the nation with an impressive 419 rushing yards per game, though these numbers have come against lesser competition in New Hampshire and Sam Houston.
Despite that, UCF’s backfield—featuring Harvey, Peny Boone, Myles Montgomery, and Johnny Richardson—looks formidable, especially with quarterback Jefferson at the helm. If UCF can maintain its ground success against TCU on the road, it would be a significant statement.
TCU’s rush defense struggled in 2023, ranking 81st nationally by allowing 160.9 yards per game, and 104th in total defense, conceding 421.5 yards per game. This contributed to their disappointing 5-7 record. Although TCU limited Stanford to just 116 rushing yards in their season opener, they still allowed 27 points, indicating potential vulnerabilities.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
This game is a true toss-up. However, UCF’s ground game might be too much for TCU to handle. While Hoover will likely keep the game competitive, UCF’s rushing attack should be enough to secure a road victory.
The Prediction: UCF 34, TCU 27
College Football Network has you covered with the latest news and analysis, rankings, transfer portal information, top players, the college football season schedule, and much more!