While it might not be the biggest game on the national radar, the matchup between the SMU Mustangs and the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday night promises plenty of intrigue. Both teams have a lot on the line, making this ACC showdown one to watch.
Our SMU vs. Duke prediction covers all the key details, including the latest betting odds and each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
SMU vs. Duke Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -4 - Spread
SMU -11 - Moneyline
SMU -425, Duke +330 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Wallace Wade Stadium | Durham, NC - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, mostly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
ACC Network
You won’t find much historical relevance here, as college football conference realignment throws together two teams that haven’t met since 1956. The Blue Devils won both previous encounters, including the last time they collided in Durham, with both games being low-scoring affairs. That would play into Duke’s favor on Saturday night, but this isn’t aint the SMU vs. Duke matchup your great-grandpa might remember from a bygone time.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
SMU is a favorite everywhere you look, and although CFN FPM has this being a closer affair than the bookmakers, they should remain undefeated in ACC play on Saturday night. Unless the spread line comes down a couple of points, I fancy Duke to cover despite SMU being 5-1 ATS this year.
SMU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, SMU has a 61.9% chance of getting the job done on Saturday night. Our metric has nearly always been in lockstep with the Mustangs this year, predicting their loss to the BYU Cougars. That said, we projected a loss to the Louisville Cardinals, so there is some margin for error.
- at Duke: 61.9%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 60.6%
- vs. Boston College: 74.9%
- at Virginia: 65.7%
- vs. California: 73%
If these win probabilities were to hold true, the Mustangs would march through the ACC, going undefeated in conference play with just one out-of-conference loss on their resume. With the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes avoiding each other in the regular season, there’s a legitimate chance of a three-way tie.
Duke’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives the Blue Devils a 38.1% chance of halting the Mustangs and coming away with a victory on Saturday evening. Our metric has favored Duke in every game except the loss to Georgia Tech, making them a 5.5-point underdog in their only loss of the season to date.
- vs. SMU: 38.1%
- at Miami (FL): 14.1%
- at NC State: 50.8%
- vs. Virginia Tech: 49.6%
- vs. Wake Forest: 63.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Duke would end the year with an 8-4 overall record and a 4-4 conference record. That’s one win better in the regular season than the final year under Mike Elko, which would perhaps defy some outside expectations of the program this year. It’s worth noting that games against NC State and Virginia Tech could go either way.
Prediction for SMU vs. Duke
After a shaky start to the season, Rhett Lashlee’s SMU squad has adapted impressively to the jump from the AAC to the ACC. Heading into Saturday night’s clash, they’re one of just four undefeated teams in conference play. Meanwhile, Duke has turned heads with a 6-1 start under a new coaching staff, defying expectations for the 2024 college football season.
Can the Mustangs maintain their momentum at the top of the ACC? Will Manny Diaz orchestrate an upset to keep the Blue Devils in contention with the conference’s best? Who has the upper hand, and where will the key matchups unfold?
Starting with the home team, Duke’s edge lies in its staunch defense. Manny Diaz took over in Durham after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Penn State Nittany Lions. While his head coaching stint at Miami fell short, he’s always been able to craft elite defensive units.
That formula has worked for the Blue Devils this season. Allowing just 17.3 points per game, Duke tops the ACC in scoring defense. They’ve conceded only six passing touchdowns all year, holding opponents to a conference-low 4.9 yards per attempt. Only Miami has allowed fewer total yards than the Blue Devils’ 306.1 yards per game.
Jaylen Stinson, Chandler Rivers, and Joshua Pickett have been outstanding, locking down the Duke secondary and creating a no-fly zone. Despite never allowing more than 24 points in a game, they’ve been in tight battles against every Power Four opponent, hindered by an offense that manages only 17.3 points per game.
That offensive struggle won’t suffice against a potent SMU attack. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets found success on the ground in Duke’s only loss this season, and with Brashard Smith’s versatility out of the backfield and Kevin Jennings’ dual-threat abilities, the Mustangs look poised to ride out of Durham with another victory.
Prediction: SMU 30, Duke 21
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