The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions have met 19 times, with the series tied at 9-9-1. What better place to settle the score than the College Football Playoff semifinals?
Our Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction breaks down everything you need—from the latest odds to the high stakes of this epic showdown.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -1 - Spread
Notre Dame -1.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -118, Penn State -102 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Jan. 9 - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Both of these programs are coming off back-to-back unders in the CFP, leading to a relatively low total. That said, Notre Dame games have hit the over in four of five with a total under 50 this season.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the spread, there are a couple of trends to note:
- Notre Dame has covered in 10 straight games.
- Penn State failed to cover in its only two games as underdogs this season (+3.5 vs. both Oregon and Ohio State).
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
Under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has hit its stride, progressing from 9-4 to 10-3 to a stellar 13-1 record. The Fighting Irish have racked up four consecutive postseason wins, including decisive CFP victories over Indiana (27-17) and Georgia (23-10).
Freeman’s success earned him a four-year, $9 million annual extension, cementing his status as one of the game’s premier head coaches.
- at Penn State: 50.8%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
James Franklin’s 4-19 record against Top 10 teams has been a glaring issue, but the Nittany Lions flipped the script with a 31-14 second-round win over No. 3 Boise State, their first Top 10 victory since the 2022 Rose Bowl.
That said, critics have called Penn State’s CFP path the “easiest,” and it’s hard to argue otherwise. Wins over No. 11 SMU (38-10) and Boise State have gotten them here, but Notre Dame represents their toughest challenge yet.
- vs. Notre Dame: 49.2%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Penn State’s defense has been elite, ranking in the top 10 across key metrics. Their rush defense will be vital against Notre Dame, which averages 6.2 yards per carry and ranks third nationally in rush EPA.
The Nittany Lions’ defensive front leads the Big Ten with 102 tackles for loss, constantly disrupting opposing offenses.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Offensively, tight end Tyler Warren is Penn State’s go-to weapon, with 98 catches for 1,158 yards, eight receiving touchdowns, and four rushing scores. However, beyond Warren, the passing game lacks depth, putting pressure on the run game to perform.
Notre Dame’s defense, ranked fourth in EPA per play, fifth in net points per drive, and eighth in success rate, is built to exploit this imbalance.
When it comes to head coaches and quarterbacks, Marcus Freeman and Riley Leonard hold the edge over James Franklin and Drew Allar. In what’s sure to be a tightly contested defensive battle, expect Notre Dame to come out on top.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 19
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