Long before the AFC playoff picture crystallized last season, it was clear that Patrick Mahomes’ 2025 calendar year hadn’t gone according to plan. The quarterback started it by losing in a disastrous blowout to Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. It continued with a lackluster showing in the following regular season and was capped off by an ACL tear on Dec. 14.
However, six months later, Mahomes is nearing his next opportunity to reverse the downturn after a 6-8 season. Will he be able to pull it off?
Let’s start with the offense, which appears largely the same, with two key additions: Kenneth Walker III and Justin Fields. Walker will be tasked with helping absorb some of the hits early in the season and wearing down defenses. If Mahomes is unable to return in Week 1, Fields and Walker will hope to beat the Denver Broncos and start the season right.
The defense saw the biggest additions, with four defensive rookies selected in the team’s first four picks in the NFL draft. After a season in which its defense struggled in serious situations, the additions will help.
However, the biggest deciding factor could be the schedule, and the NFL handed the Chiefs a bone. After a tough game at home against the Denver Broncos, the team will line up against three straight teams that didn’t make the playoffs in 2025. It will then get a bye and come in with fresh legs against the Los Angeles Chargers. As such, Kansas City will have every opportunity to start hot, and it could look like Mahomes is back in full force.
The rest of the season is balanced between tough and easier opponents, so if the team can go even slightly above .500, Kansas City will have a great chance to get a home playoff game, which will be the bar for whether the team is back in full force.
Full AFC Playoff Picture Prediction
In terms of seeding, the Jacksonville Jaguars continue rising under Liam Coen, while the Broncos take a slight step back but win the AFC West once again. The Baltimore Ravens, armed with a motivated but older Lamar Jackson whose physical style continues to hold him back just enough, finish with the third seed.
Josh Allen regains control in the AFC East after the Patriots suffer a Super Bowl losing hangover. The Chiefs, a team that narrowly lost the division, cleans up with a respectable 11-6 record. The Steelers keeps its generational run of winning seasons for one more season, and the Chargers sneak in with the last seed.
- #1 – Jacksonville Jaguars
- #2 – Denver Broncos
- #3 – Baltimore Ravens
- #4 – Buffalo Bills
- #5 – Kansas City Chiefs
- #6 – Pittsburgh Steelers
- #7 – Los Angeles Chargers
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