Conference USA’s midweek action is here, and it’s kicking off with a bang! The reigning champions take center stage Tuesday night as the Liberty Flames, unbeaten in the regular season since 2022, look to extend their streak. But can the FIU Panthers make a stand and shake things up under the national spotlight?
Our FIU vs. Liberty prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Panthers and Flames’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
FIU vs. Liberty Betting Preview
All FIU vs. Liberty odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Liberty -14 - Spread
Liberty -16 - Moneyline
Liberty -750, FIU +535 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Williams Stadium | Lynchburg, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
43 degrees, clear, 2-5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Not only are Jamey Chadwell’s Liberty undefeated this season but they’ve also yet to taste defeat against their Tuesday night opponents. There have been two previous encounters between the schools, with the Flames torching the Panthers a year ago in a particularly one-sided matchup.
That said, their 2020 encounter, the only previous one in Lynchburg, was a much tighter affair. Which will be replicated on Tuesday night?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Liberty is a significant favorite (both moneyline and spread), but as you can see above, the CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) projects a tighter spread line than the oddsmakers right now. The Flames have been poor against the spread this year, going 1-3 and never covering as a double-digit favorite.
FIU, on the other hand, is 3-1 covering the spread as an underdog. They also covered as a double-digit ‘dog to open the season against Indiana.
FIU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, FIU has a 14.9% chance of winning this CUSA clash. After opening the season against a high-flying Indiana Hoosiers side, Liberty provides the Panthers’ most difficult test. They have already overcome the underdog status once this season, comfortably beating Central Michigan in Week 2.
- at Liberty: 14.9%
- at UTEP: 51.2%
- vs. Sam Houston: 38.9%
- vs. New Mexico State: 52.8%
- at Jacksonville State: 39.4%
- at Kennesaw State: 75.1%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 57.4%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, FIU would end the season with a 6-6 record, earning a bowl season berth for the first time since 2019. However, within those projections, they have two close games (UTEP and New Mexico State) that turn the tide of triumph into despair of defeat with a reversal of results.
Liberty’s Winning Probability
Things are a lot more favorable for the Flames. According to the CFN FPM, Liberty has an 85.1% chance of beating FIU in one of the easier games on their schedule. The reigning CUSA champions have been favored in every game since the start of the season and haven’t succumbed to an upset so far.
- vs. FIU: 85.1%
- at Kennesaw State: 93.4%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 79.9%
- at Middle Tennessee: 82.6%
- at UMass: 87.2%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 65.7%
- at Sam Houston: 73%
Liberty is projected to run the table and go undefeated for a second successive season. The CFN FPM gives the Flames a 58.6% chance of winning the conference title again, the highest of any program following Week 6 of the 2024 college football campaign. However, their canceled game against Appalachian State looms large for their College Football Playoff chances, currently set at 35.3%.
Prediction for FIU vs. Liberty
After rebounding from an unexpected scare against FCS Monmouth with a solid conference win over Louisiana Tech, FIU heads to Lynchburg aiming to pull off a surprise of their own. Meanwhile, Liberty is eager to get back to business after a 17-day layoff, thanks to Hurricane Helene forcing the cancellation of their showdown with Appalachian State.
The Flames are hungry to return to doing what they’ve done best in recent years: winning football games.
Can the Panthers pull off the upset, or will Liberty prove too tough to contain? Who has the edge, and where will the game be decided?
FIU enters as a heavy underdog but boasts a passing defense that could neutralize Liberty’s biggest threat. While Kaidon Salter’s production hasn’t hit last year’s highs, he’s still the best passer in Conference USA and remains one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation.
He leads the league in adjusted yards per attempt (10.1) and yards per completion (14.4) through Week 6.
However, FIU’s defense might be up to the task. The Panthers are first in CUSA in opponent yards per attempt (6.1), allow just one passing touchdown per game, and rank third in interceptions. Six different players have logged a pick this season—excluding highly touted cornerback Hezekiah Masses.
Mike MacIntyre’s unit has the potential to give Salter and the Flames a frustrating night.
That said, there’s a reason Liberty sits second in the conference in scoring offense, averaging 33.5 points per game. They don’t have to rely solely on Salter’s arm, and as we saw last season, their run game is more than capable of taking over. While the Flames have run the ball less frequently in 2024, don’t count out Billy Lucas and Quinton Cooley as impact players in this matchup.
Can FIU keep up?
The Panthers have shown improvement, putting up more points per game than last year, led by the electric young quarterback Keyone Jenkins, who tops CUSA in passing touchdowns. Wideouts Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson have emerged as a potent duo, hauling in five scores combined.
But with just 17 points against Louisiana Tech, replicating that success against a much tougher Liberty defense will be a tall order.
Expect TJ Bush to play a pivotal role in a likely Flames victory.
Prediction: Liberty 31, FIU 21
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