The Clemson Tigers expect to be in the College Football Playoff every year, especially now that the field has expanded to 12 teams. However, they have suffered three losses this season, most recently to South Carolina in Week 14.
However, following Miami’s loss to Syracuse, the Tigers have hope.
Clemson’s Playoff Odds
The Tigers are 7-1 in ACC play, with their regular-season finale coming against in-state rival South Carolina in a non-conference clash. The SMU Mustangs won their game against Cal and ‘won’ the regular season title in the league. Not to mention that, but the Mustangs also own the top two tiebreakers against the Tigers, so their ticket was booked before Week 14 started.
Thus, Clemson’s conference title hopes hinged on the Miami Hurricanes falling to the Syracuse Orange in Week 14. With very little hope as the game started, the Orange did the improbable and knocked off the Hurricanes, all but eliminating Miami from playoff contention in the process.
Now, Clemson faces SMU in the ACC Championship Game, a game in which the CFN Playoff Predictor gives them a 55.6% win probability.
According to the FPM, the Tigers now have a 55.6% chance to make the playoffs. This comes directly from their winning probability against SMU in the ACC title game.
If Clemson wins the ACC, they’re in the playoffs. Where they’re seeded, however, is up for grabs as they’re likely to rank much lower than the three-loss SEC teams that make up the teens of the committee’s rankings.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
No matter the seeding, Clemson would get in the playoffs with a win. Even a 12-seed Clemson team would scare those teams involved, likely a No. 5 Notre Dame team that would host the Tigers.
Here’s a look at how the CFP Rankings stack up around Clemson:
- No. 15 — South Carolina (W)
- No. 14 — Ole Miss (W)
- No. 13 — Alabama (W)
- No. 12 — Clemson (L)
- No. 11 — Boise State (W)
- No. 10 — Indiana (tbd)
- No. 9 — SMU (W)
- No. 8 — Tennessee (W)
- No. 7 — Georgia (W)
- No. 6 — Miami (L)
- No. 5 — Notre Dame (W)
Clemson is set to jump out of the top 15, but be able to play in. An at-large bid is certainly gone at this point.
More importantly, it will be very interesting to see how far the committee drops Miami following their loss to Syracuse. If they drop them far enough, it’s likely the ACC will only plant one team in the college football playoffs.
That’s a hard pill to swallow for the ACC, who hoped to have multiple teams in the playoffs. Now their hopes lie within SMU or Clemson making the playoffs and making a lengthy run.
Either way you slice it, however, Clemson controls their destiny to the playoffs. And for that, they owe Syracuse a big thank you.
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