The streak is over. The BYU Cougars finally found themselves in a one-score game they couldn’t escape with another miraculous win. But even with their improbable run coming to an end, the Cougars still have every season goal in sight.
Now, they face a critical test against a surging Arizona State Sun Devils squad. To avoid a late-season stumble, BYU will need to deliver their best effort against a team hitting its stride at the right time. Will the Sun Devils spoil BYU’s season ambitions? Here’s how we see things shaking out in this BYU vs. Arizona State prediction.
BYU vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All BYU vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Arizona State -3.5 - Moneyline
Arizona State -162, BYU +136 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 3:30 ET - Location
Mountain America Stadium | Tempe, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
While all eyes seem to be on the Cougars, the Sun Devils still have a path to the College Football Playoff. While that path seemed slim just last week, BYU’s loss to Kansas opened the door. The fact that they’re alive in the Big 12 championship hunt is a testament to Kenny Dillingham’s coaching.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Arizona State is actually favored at home here as Vegas continues to fade BYU. With a spread of 3 points and a total of 49, the sportsbooks expect a close game with a score near 26-23, in favor of the Sun Devils.
BYU’s Winning Probability
BYU defied the odds to go undefeated this season until last week. Now, the Cougars are still alive, but there’s no wiggle room. A loss this week would have BYU losing the tie-breaker to Arizona State, so a win is vital. This one is a true toss-up, as CFN’s FPM gives the Cougars a 49.4% chance to beat the Sun Devils
- at Arizona State: 49.4%
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
All of a sudden, Arizona State has a shot to make the Big 12 Championship Game. FPM gives the Sun Devils a 50.6% chance to beat the Cougars, then there’s a showdown with in-state rival Arizona.
- vs. BYU: 50.6%
- at Arizona: 65.1%
Prediction for BYU vs. Arizona State
Arizona State is riding the momentum of three straight wins, and they’ve managed it largely without their best player for much of that stretch.
If the Sun Devils are serious about making a postseason push, though, they’ll need Cam Skattebo back at full strength. Even in his absence, they’ve been impressively physical, catching opponents off guard with their toughness and grit.
For BYU, this game presents a stark contrast to their matchup against Kansas last week. The Jayhawks rely on a side-to-side offense packed with motion and misdirection, while Arizona State opts for a more straightforward, power-based approach, using motion sparingly to add wrinkles to their downhill attack.
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I’ve been impressed with Arizona State’s recent performances, but Skattebo’s health adds a layer of uncertainty. He logged 29 touches against Kansas State but averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and failed to score for only the second time this season. If he’s 100%, I’d peg Arizona State as a solid 7-10-point favorite against the version of BYU we’ve seen lately. If not, the current line feels about right, making it tough to find a clear edge here.
One potential factor is how BYU responds to last week’s loss.
Personally, I expect Kalani Sitake’s team to bounce back. This isn’t a program that crumbles after a setback. In fact, losing their perfect season might actually help them play looser, closer to the form they showed earlier in the year. Lately, they’ve seemed tentative, playing not to lose—a mindset that could shift now.
There’s a lot of speculation at play, but I trust Sitake to have his team ready. This matchup feels like it could come down to the final drive.
If we get confirmation later in the week that Skattebo is fully healthy, my pick might shift. For now, I think Arizona State ekes out a win but doesn’t cover, with the hook just past three.
From a betting perspective, there are likely better options on the board. But for college football fans, this could be one of the weekend’s most entertaining games. If you’re inclined to bet, I’d lean toward BYU on the spread and the under—but if Skattebo is at full strength, that call might backfire.
I’ve got Arizona State by three.
Prediction: Arizona State 24, BYU 21
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