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    Big Ten Championship Game Scenarios: Following Ohio State’s Loss, Penn State & Indiana Now Have Life

    The Big Ten Championship Game was a one-horse race entering the week, but following Ohio State's loss to Michigan, it's Penn State or Indiana that will face Oregon.

    The Big Ten Championship Game looked like it was Ohio State’s for the taking. However, after the Michigan Wolverines knocked off their bitter rival Buckeyes, the Big Ten Championship Game is now to be determined by two other teams: the Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions.

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    Big Ten Championship Game Odds

    Entering the week, Ohio State had the second-best odds to win the Big Ten, only behind Oregon, which had already punched its ticket to the game. Now that it has lost to Michigan, Ohio State is all but eliminated from the Big Ten Championship picture.

    Oregon will now wait on the results of Penn State vs. Maryland and Indiana vs. Purdue to find out who they’ll play in Indianapolis on Saturday.

    Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability

    Entering the week, here’s how our College Football Playoff Predictor expected things to go for the four teams in contention:

    • Oregon: 49.98%
    • Ohio State: 49.19%
    • Penn State: 0.47%
    • Indiana: 0.36%

    But after the game, Ohio State would now need a slew of fortunate luck in order to get to the Big Ten Championship Game.

    Updated Big Ten Standings

    1) Oregon Ducks 8-0 (11-0)
    3) Indiana Hoosiers 7-1 (10-1)
    2) Penn State Nittany Lions 7-1 (10-1)
    4) Ohio State Buckeyes 7-2 (10-2)

    Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    For the Ducks, the proverbial monkey is finally off their backs. They entered the week with the luxury of being in the Big Ten title game regardless of the outcome against Washington in Week 14. Now, they’ll await their opponent while taking on the Huskies on the field.

    The good news for Ducks fans? Oregon holds the upper hand over the Huskies and their eventual Big Ten Championship opponent.

    • Washington: 94.4%
    • Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Penn State: 73.8%
      • or vs. Indiana: 75.1%

    Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    The Buckeyes held their fate in their own hands, needing only to take down archrival Michigan in The Game during Week 14. Despite being heavy favorites, the Buckeyes dropped a close game to Michigan, killing their Big Ten Championship hopes in the process.

    And that’s exactly why rivalry games matter.

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    For Ohio State, it was simple: win and you were in. The loss, however, complicates things.

    Now, Ohio State must hope both Indiana and Penn State also lose in Week 14. That is, of course, highly improbable. They’re in the playoffs, they’re just not competing for the Big Ten now.

    Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    Now that Ohio State has lost, it’s simple for Indiana. Well, not in reality, but in terms of the road map. Even with Ohio State losing, Indiana still needs Penn State to lose as well.

    This is because Indiana doesn’t own the tiebreaker against Penn State if they both finish with an 8-1 record in Big Ten play. Let’s break that down.

    The tiebreakers state that it would go to head-to-head record — but Indiana and Penn State didn’t play each other.

    So, then it’s record against common opponents:

    • vs. UCLA
      • Indiana: win
      • Penn State: win
    • vs. Maryland
      • Indiana: win
      • Penn State: (hypothetical) win
    • vs. Washington
      • Indiana: win
      • Penn State: win
    • vs. Ohio State
      • Indiana: loss
      • Penn State: loss
    • vs. Purdue
      • Indiana: (hypothetical) win
      • Penn State: win

    So each team would be 4-1 against common conference opponents and have lost to the same team (Ohio State). In this instance, we have to move to Big Ten tiebreaker scenario No. 4 as No. 3 does us no good either. Tiebreaker scenario No. 4 looks at ‘cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.’

    Looking at it that way and you have the following results entering Week 14:

    • Indiana conference opponent winning percentage: 37.0% (27-46)
      • UCLA: 3-6
      • Maryland: 1-7
      • Northwestern: 2-6
      • Nebraska: 3-5
      • Washington: 4-4
      • Michigan State: 3-5
      • Michigan: 4-4
      • Ohio State: 7-1
      • Purdue: 0-8
    • Penn State conference opponent winning percentage: 41.9% (31-43)
      • Illinois: 5-3
      • UCLA: 3-6
      • USC: 4-5
      • Wisconsin: 3-5
      • Ohio State: 7-1
      • Washington: 4-4
      • Purdue: 0-8
      • Minnesota: 4-4
      • Maryland: 1-7

    And sadly, for Indiana fans, tiebreaker No. 4 goes to Penn State in this scenario. Even with the games remaining, there’s a big enough gap that PSU will own this tiebreaker over Indiana all the way through.

    So, for Indiana, hope that Maryland pulls off an upset as big — if not bigger — than the one Michigan just did over Ohio State.

    • Purdue: 96.6%
    • Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 24.9%

    Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map

    The Nittany Lions got the help they needed to control their own destiny. As they watched Ohio State fall to Michigan, Penn State warmed up for their game against Maryland.

    A win against Maryland would punch their ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. That’s because they now own the tiebreaker over Indiana, if the Hoosiers were to defeat Purdue.

    The road map is as simple as that, thanks to Michigan. Defeat Maryland and you play Oregon.

    If that falls into place, the Nittany Lions would claim the tiebreaker over Indiana and secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

    Focus on Maryland, thank the Michigan Wolverines later.

    • Maryland: 93.9%
    • Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 26.2%

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