Few teams in college football are as desperate for a win as the Florida Gators are in Week 6. Sitting at 2-2, the Gators welcome UCF to Gainesville before tackling what’s considered the toughest remaining schedule in the country.
The Knights, on the other hand, are no easy opponent. They’re off to a solid 3-1 start, and despite last week’s stumble against Colorado, all their goals are still within reach. A win over Florida would be a major boost to their postseason ambitions.
With the line suggesting a tight matchup, our UCF vs. Florida prediction breaks down the potential edges.
UCF vs. Florida Betting Preview
All UCF vs. Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Florida -1 - Spread
UCF -1 - Moneyline
Florida +105, UCF -115 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, rainy, seven mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and the Vegas spread were much more aligned on this one as both have it as a near toss-up at the jump. However, CFN’s FPM still gives the Gators a one-point edge. With a total of now over 60, the implied score of the game is in the 31-30 range, which would certainly be a thrilling contest.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
This line has bounced back and forth all week long, with UCF -2.5 reaching the most extreme line at any point so far.
UCF’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter has the Knights as a slight underdog. Their status as a one-point dog pushes their winning probability to just 49.2%.
The range of outcomes for the Knights is wide, as this game is one of six remaining games in which UCF has a win probability of between 30% and 70%.
- at Florida: 49.2%
- vs. Cincinnati: 65.1%
- at Iowa State: 25.4%
- vs. BYU: 38.9%
- vs. Arizona: 36.9%
- at Arizona State: 49.4%
- at West Virginia:42.6%
- at Utah: 26.2%
Florida’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Florida has a 50.8% chance to win Saturday. The FPM really emphasizes the difficulty of Florida’s remaining schedule, as the Gators end with six straight games as a heavy underdog and a toss-up against Florida State.
That shows the importance of Saturday’s game.
- vs. UCF: 50.8%
- at Tennessee: 6.6%
- vs. Kentucky: 46.2%
- vs. Georgia: 11.4%
- at Texas: 4.8%
- vs. LSU: 19.4%
- vs. Ole Miss: 21.9%
- at Florida State: 51.8%
Prediction for UCF vs. Florida
Neither defense has been particularly dependable, with UCF struggling to rein in Colorado’s aggressive attack last weekend. Meanwhile, Florida’s defense has been carved up by competent offenses, both on the ground and through the air.
The Gators’ run defense has been especially problematic, ranking 122nd in total defense against the run, while their pass defense isn’t much better at 103rd. Teams are running against them more than any other defense in the country.
Per pass attempt, Florida is among the bottom 15 nationally, allowing 9.2 yards per throw. They’ve struggled to limit explosive plays through the air and can’t seem to consistently stop the run either.
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That’s a concerning setup against a UCF offense that likes to establish the ground game and then capitalize on big shots downfield. UCF quarterback KJ Jefferson has been hit-or-miss in the passing game, but he’s connecting on over 50% of his throws beyond 10 yards, averaging 14.9 yards per attempt on those throws this season.
I can see the Knights pounding the ball with RJ Harvey, then using play-action to set up deep strikes. If they can execute that, Florida might be forced into a shootout—and so far, they haven’t protected the ball well enough to win that way.
I’m taking the Knights in a high-scoring matchup that could spell the end of Bill Napier’s tenure at Florida.
Prediction: UCF 42, Florida 31
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