Every clash between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the TCU Horned Frogs is a thriller, with Texas Tech holding a slight edge in the all-time series at 33-30-3. The 2024 showdown is set to bring the same high-stakes excitement.
In our Texas Tech vs. TCU preview, we break down the matchup in detail, providing essential betting insights to guide your smartest wagers.
Texas Tech vs. TCU Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -1 - Spread
TCU -5 - Moneyline
TCU -198, Texas Tech +164 - Over/Under
65.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, 8 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
Fox
After opening at TCU -4, bettors played the line up to -7, even further away from the FPM’s outlook of the contest. The Horned Frogs are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games, making the line even more puzzling.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, Spooky Season hasn’t been kind to Texas Tech, as the program is 0-6 ATS in their last six Week 9 contests. As far as the total, trends point toward the under, which has hit in six of the Red Raiders’ last seven on the road and four of TCU’s last five at home.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Texas Tech is in the midst of its best season in the Joey McGuire era, going 5-2 and 3-1 in the Big 12 thus far. However, the final stretch will test the program’s resilience, with sub-54% win probabilities for the rest of the season, including 48.8% against TCU.
- at Iowa State: 24.5%
- vs. Colorado: 53.8%
- at Oklahoma State: 46.6%
- vs. West Virginia: 52.8%
TCU’s Winning Probability
TCU has ground out a 4-3 record this year, and the second half of the schedule is no easier. Beginning with a 51.2% win probability against the Red Raiders, the Horned Frogs own between 49-52% rates to end the season.
- at Baylor: 49.4%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 51.8%
- vs. Arizona: 50.4%
- at Cincinnati: 49.6%
Prediction for Texas Tech vs. TCU
Texas Tech’s five wins are all the more impressive given that the offense has shouldered the load. Just last week, Baylor came into Lubbock and handed the Red Raiders a rough 59-35 loss, causing doubt among some. Not me.
McGuire’s team will be fired up to bounce back from that setback, and what better way than facing an in-state rival? The Horned Frogs are fresh off a gritty 13-7 win over Utah, who were without Cam Rising, but TCU’s defense still delivered a strong showing.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Utah’s challenge, led by true freshman Isaac Wilson, doesn’t quite measure up to Texas Tech’s offense under Behren Morton. Despite a few dropped passes, untimely penalties, and sacks, the Red Raiders’ attack has thrived both through the air and on the ground.
Morton has kept mistakes to a minimum (only three interceptions on 270 attempts), while RB Tahj Brooks has racked up 804 yards and eight touchdowns on 104 carries.
TCU’s Josh Hoover has shown promise, but with a run game averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and a shaky kicking game (8-of-13), I’m backing the Red Raiders against the spread and straight up, plus taking the over in this year’s Battle for the Saddle Trophy.
Prediction: Texas Tech 38, TCU 35
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