The 13-seeded Texas Longhorns and 12-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores will battle it out Wednesday afternoon in the first round of the highly-anticipated SEC Tournament.
The Longhorns are fighting for their postseason lives, badly needing a victory to keep their NCAA Tournament chances together. The Commodores are more than likely already in but could claim more favorable seeding with another Quad 1 win, their sixth of the season.
Texas vs Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Vanderbilt odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, March 12, 2025.
- Spread
Vanderbilt -1.5 - Moneyline
Vanderbilt -128, Texas +106 - Over/Under
148.5 Points - Game Time
Wednesday, March 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN - How To Watch
SEC Network
The Longhorns have been below-average in terms of covering this season, with a 14-16-1 record ATS. In conference, that mark is 7-10-1, including only covering one of their final nine games to finish the regular season.
Vanderbilt comes in with an 18-13 record ATS and is 12-5 ATS in games they’re favored—which they are against Texas. They’ve covered three of their last five games.
Both teams’ defenses are not great, to say the least. Texas has gone over in 18 of its 31 games, while the Commodores have gone over in 16 of its 31 games but allow 74.6 ppg to opponents. Vanderbilt has gone over in three of its last four to finish the season, with the Longhorns going over in nine of its last ten.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Preview
Texas enters with a 17-14 overall and 6-12 SEC record. The sheer competitiveness of the conference is the leading belief behind why the Longhorns are still considered on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament—in other years, 17 wins would be far below the benchmark.
But head coach Rodney Terry’s squad boasts five Quad 1 victories and would claim their sixth with a win on Wednesday.
Vanderbilt’s MJ Collins (undisclosed) and Grant Huffman (undisclosed) are both questionable for Wednesday’s SEC Tournament game against Texas per the SEC Injury Report.
Collins averages 7.9 PPG.
Huffman averages 3.4 PPG.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 12, 2025
Vanderbilt has been a solid team all year long, culminating in a 20-11 record despite only going 8-10 in conference play. The Commodores’ one blip lately was their two disappointing losses to the Arkansas Razorbacks and Georgia Bulldogs to finish the regular season. However, that stretch followed three consecutive wins over ranked opponents, showing the high-ceiling nature of this team.
This game will feature two of the best scorers in the SEC, Vanderbilt’s Jason Edwards and Texas’s Tre Johnson.
Edwards has been the go-to guy for the Commodores this season, averaging 16.9 ppg, and is the only scorer on the team scoring who regularly scores in double figures. He scores from all over the floor, as a major threat from deep, but also has the slashing ability to get into the lane and draw fouls.
In his last outing against Georgia, Edwards made eight of ten free throws and two three-pointers on his way to putting up a game-high 24 points in the loss.
The junior guard has shown up in the biggest games; it may come down to whether his supporting cast can maintain the high level of play they’ve maintained for most of the season.
On the other side, freshman guard Tre Johnson is a “certified bucket.” He’s a tough-shot taker—and a tough-shot maker.
At only 19 years old, he’s leading the rugged SEC in scoring at 20.2 ppg and has had some truly magnificent performances. In the middle of February, he put together a four-game stretch in which he averaged 31.0 ppg.
Johnson gets up 16 shots a night—with their tournament hopes on the line, expect him to get up even more against the Commodores.
These teams have already met this season back in February, when Vanderbilt, on their home floor, defeated Texas 86-78. In that game, Johnson shot just five of 14 from the field and scored just 15 points.
The Longhorns held the lead at halftime before giving it away in the second half. Regardless, it was a competitive game that should produce great results on the court in Nashville.
The winner of this matchup will face the fifth-seeded Texas A&M Aggies in the second round, a tough matchup for both teams—but what game isn’t in this year’s SEC?
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The total being set at 148.5 points is likely an indictment of how the other major conference tournament games have been played so far. Many of them haven’t even reached the 70’s in terms of individual team scoring.
The desperation and urgency are heightened in the conference tournament environment as teams face the reality of having to play with their entire season on the line.
Despite that, Texas has gone over in nine of its last ten games, which is hard to deny when looking at that point total. The Longhorns’ totals hovered around the high 150s and low 160s—it looks like a steal with such a low listed total.
We’ll take the over, as I expect both shot-makers on both sides to be on their game along with the supporting players as they fully realize the desperation they’ll feel when they get on the court.
KEEP READING: SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament Schedule
While Johnson will get his shots, I don’t see Texas pulling out the win.
Vanderbilt is favored by 1.5 points, an understandable spread considering they only won by eight points at home and with the desperation in the faces of the Longhorns.
But it’s also hard to ignore the Commodores’ record ATS when favored 12-5. Add that Texas has only covered once in their last nine games—where they’ve been an underdog in a majority of them. I’d take Vanderbilt -1.5.
Johnson and his squad will fight, but ultimately, Edward’s team is more well-balanced overall and has shown the propensity for winning more games in big moments. Vanderbilt will come out with the win and have to endure a quick turnaround before facing the Aggies on Thursday.
Picks: Over 148.5 Points, Vanderbilt -2.5
Prediction: Vanderbilt 79, Texas 73
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