The No. 18 Purdue Boilermakers will travel to Champaign on Friday night to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini. With a win, they hope to break free of a three-way tie for third place in the conference.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are riding high on a 20-point victory over the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines; can they grab another ranked victory, this time on their home court?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Illinois odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 7, 2025.
- Spread
Illinois -4.5 - Moneyline
Illinois -205, Purdue +168 - Over/Under
159.5 Points - Game Time
Friday, March 7, 8:00 p.m. ET - Location
State Farm Center | Champaign, IL - How To Watch
FOX
Purdue has been above-average in terms of covering this season with a 17-13 record ATS. They hold an even better 13-6 record in Big Ten play, including covering their last games in victories of 10 and 29 points.
Illinois is slightly below-average ATS, with a 14-16 record. That number drops to 8-11 in conference matchups, but they have covered their last two outings as well with two 20-point victories.
The Boilermakers’ subpar defense and good offense have resulted in 18 of their 30 games going over the point total. Thirteen of 19 conference games have gone over as well. However, on the road, only three of Purdue’s 10 road games have gone over, an important stat to consider regarding this game.
The Fighting Illini have an identical 18-12 over/under record as the Boilermakers, with 12 of their 19 Big Ten outings going over. It’s been the correct play in five of their last seven games. However, even 50% of their home games have gone over.
Purdue vs. Illinois Preview
Purdue enters Champaign with a 21-9 overall and 13-6 conference record, good for a three-way tie for third place in the standings. The Boilermakers endured a costly four-game losing streak in mid-February that dropped them in the standings, but two wins have followed, and they have a chance for a third against the Fighting Illini.
The home team has a 19-11 overall record, including 11-8 in Big Ten matchups. That leaves them tied with the Oregon Ducks for seventh place in the conference standings. With a win and a UCLA loss, the Fighting Illini could climb as high as sixth. A loss would drop them to eighth.
Illinois point guard Kasparas Jakucionis will do everything he can to ensure a home win in likely his last home game at State Farm Center.
The freshman is expected to be a lottery selection in the 2025 NBA Draft after an excellent campaign in which he’s averaged team-highs in points (15.4 ppg) and assists (5.4 apg) while grabbing 5.6 rpg. His ability to dictate the pace of the game is uncanny for a player so young—a large reason he’s only spending one season at Illinois.
READ MORE: Kasparas Jakucionis Scouting Report: Can’t-Miss Prospect in Loaded NBA Draft Class?
7’1″ center Tomislav Ivisic is a major threat from deep along with grabbing a team-leading 7.7 rpg. Junior guard Tre White, averaging 10.0 ppg and 5.4 rpg on the season, has been on a tear in his last three games with averages of 16.3 ppg and 6.0 rpg. If he has another good game, Illinois will be tough to beat.
The Boilermakers don’t have nearly as much depth, but they make up for it with three high-level players, all juniors.
It all starts with point guard Braden Smith, who’s entered the conversation to be a finalist for the Naismith National Player of the Year award.
He’s second in the country in assists with 8.7 per game while adding 16.3 ppg on 40.6% from three-point range. His rapid improvement from a supporting player to a bonafide star has been a huge reason why Purdue is in the position they’re in.
Leading scorer, forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, had arguably a larger improvement curve from one season to the next; in the 2023-24 season, he averaged 6.4 ppg in 16.9 mpg. Just one season later, he’s third in the Big Ten in scoring at 19.4 ppg. He’s been a force down low, also pulling in a team-high 6.1 rpg.
Guard Fletcher Loyer is going on his third season as one of the best shooters in college basketball. He nailed seven threes on 12 attempts in his last outing, scoring 23 points.
There’s immense star power between these two teams, and they have much to fight for. In the final regular-season game, will they already have their sights set on the upcoming Big Ten tournament, or will it turn into a classic Big Ten bloodbath?
Either way, it’ll be intriguing to see how these teams stack up against one another.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The over/under for this game is set at 159.5 points with the expected final score being 82-77 with Illinois on top. Considering these teams scored 100 (Purdue) and 93 (Illinois) in their last outings, I expect this game to go over that total.
They may not reach the 90’s, but the game creeping into the 80’s in the final minutes should be a very real possibility.
Now, the spread is set at Illinois -4.5. They have shown signs of potentially peaking at the right time, with two consecutive 20-point wins with the latter coming against the 15th-ranked Wolverines.
But the Boilermakers have also won two in a row and should be feeling good about themselves after righting the right following a four-game skid. Similarly, they’ve won their last two games by a combined 39 points.
The game is at State Farm Center, a clear advantage for the Fighting Illini — but is it enough to be favored by nearly five points against the No. 18 team in the nation with Smith at point guard?
I’d lean towards the answer being no. Smith and Loyer have been in this position before, playing meaningful basketball in March. Many players on the Illinois roster have not, namely Jakucionis, who’s only a freshman.
I’d take Purdue +4.5, and if you’re really feeling it—like I am—take the Boilermakers to win outright at +168 odds. That’s excellent value, so we’ll capitalize on that.
Picks: Over 159.5 Points, Purdue +4.5, Purdue ML (+155)
Prediction: Purdue 85, Illinois 80
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