The ACC has long been a very competitive basketball conference, but in 2025, the Duke Blue Devils have been far and away the best team in the conference. They’ve suffered one loss in conference play to the Clemson Tigers but rebounded by winning their final eight games of the regular season by an average of 29.5 points.
Does any other team have a chance of claiming the conference title? According to our metrics, yes. And there are a couple of teams who aren’t complete long shots.
Which Teams Have the Best Chances of Winning the ACC Tournament?
For this piece, we’re using our very own College Sports Network winning projections, as well as FanDuel Sportsbook, for our betting odds.
Duke Blue Devils
Chance of Winning Tournament (according to CSN): <60%
Odds (FanDuel): -340
There is not a whole lot to say about the Blue Devils. They’ve blown out nearly every team in the conference outside of Clemson, so why would that be any different in the ACC Tournament?
Much, much crazier things have happened, and with teams desperately playing for their season and Duke cemented as a top-seed in the NCAA Tournament, freshman phenom Cooper Flagg will have to be focused and ready for whatever comes his way.
But at their best, Duke should still roll on their way to pairing the 2025 ACC Tournament title with the 2025 ACC regular-season title.
Clemson Tigers
Chance of Winning ACCT: 10.54%
Odds: +650
The only ACC team to beat the Blue Devils in the regular season, Clemson has proven itself to be one of the best teams in the country. They assume the No. 10 ranking in the latest AP Poll while on an eight-game win streak heading into the conference tournament.
The Tigers boast an extremely strong starting lineup, with four double-digit scorers led by guard Chase Hunter. The sixth-year senior has gracefully stepped into a go-to scoring role, averaging 16.0 ppg on 47.2% shooting from the field.
The Cardinals and Tigers are on the same side of the bracket, so they’ll likely have to go through one another before reaching Duke in the national championship game. If Clemson gets there, it will be confident that it can beat the Blue Devils once again.
Louisville Cardinals
Chance of Winning ACCT: 15.28%
Odds: +700
Head coach Pat Kelsey has engineered the biggest turnaround in the country in his first season at the helm in Louisville by leading the Cardinals to 25 regular-season victories after finishing last in the ACC standings just a year ago.
The turnaround has been led by a barrage of transfers—leading scorer and assister Chucky Hepburn and second-leading scorer Terrence Edwards Jr. in particular—and efforts on the defensive end of the floor. They force 13.2 turnovers a game, a top-75 mark in the country and a huge improvement from a year ago.
In terms of how they compare with Duke, the two teams met in early December, and the Blue Devils emerged with an 11-point victory. At that point, the Cardinals held a 5-4 overall record, and the season looked much like 2024.
Since that game, Louisville has been a completely different team, losing only two games in nearly four months. A rematch with Duke would be extremely intriguing; they’d meet in the championship game.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Chance of Winning ACCT: 7.79%
Odds: +2800
The Tar Heels have rebounded after disappointing for much of the season by finishing with a six-game win streak before losing to Duke—but were competitive for much of the game—in the final regular-season game.
The Tar Heels don’t lack experience at the top, with fifth-year senior R.J. Davis set to compete in his final ACC Tournament. UNC also has terrific talent yet has been positionally undersized—but in a single-elimination tournament, the quickness likely will play in their favor.
WHEN IS CAROLINA PLAYING IN THE ACC TOURNEY? CHECK THE FULL BRACKET AND SCHEDULE NOW.
Desperation is also in their favor, as the Tar Heels are on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament; expect them to be hungry and looking for big wins in the ACC Tournament.
SMU Mustangs
Chance of Winning ACCT: 5.86%
Odds: +6500
Despite stumbling to the end of the regular season, winning three of their final six games, the Mustangs still enter the conference tournament as a dangerous team with a chance to win the whole thing.
Despite not having one elite scorer, head coach Andy Enfield’s squad has six players who average in double figures each having the ability to have big games.
Although SMU didn’t receive a double-bye and will enter the tournament in the second round, they dodged Duke’s side of the bracket and would only meet them in the championship game, a key thing to remember.
It’s unlikely, but if Enfield can work some magic, the Mustangs may be in the ACC championship with a chance to win it.
Best of the Rest
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: +8500
- Pittsburgh Panthers: +24000
- Stanford Cardinal: +24000
- Syracuse Orange: +30000
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