If someone asked me to point to a single moment that captures the craziness of the 2024 college football season, I’d probably show them the betting line for the Florida State Seminoles versus the Duke Blue Devils. Yes, you read that right—the Blue Devils are the favorites.
How times have changed.
In this Florida State vs. Duke prediction, we’ll dive into just how much worse things could get for the Seminoles and consider the surprising possibility of Duke securing bowl eligibility before November.
Florida State vs. Duke Betting Preview
All Florida State vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Duke -7 - Spread
Duke -3 - Moneyline
Duke -148, Florida State +124 - Over/Under
42.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 18, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ a bit, though each has the Blue Devils as favorites. After getting over the initial shock of seeing Duke favored over Florida State by three points, bets poured in on the Blue Devils, moving the line to 3.5.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 42.5 points, indicative of the defensive talent — and the struggling offenses — in this one. With a spread of 3.5 points, the implied final score is close to 23-19 in favor of the Blue Devils.
Florida State’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, the Seminoles are in danger of a spectacularly bad season. Florida State has a 28.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about seven points.
The Seminoles are favored in just one remaining FBS game. Here are Florida State’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Duke: 28.4%
- at Miami (FL): 6.5%
- vs. North Carolina: 52.8%
- at Notre Dame: 8.1%
- vs. Charleston Southern: 92.9%
- vs. Florida: 37.4%
Duke’s Winning Probability
The Blue Devils shot out to a 5-0 record and FPM thinks the Blue Devils could win several of their remaining games. Duke has a 71.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, the easiest remaining game on the schedule. The Blue Devils have several true toss-ups left on the schedule, making this a crucial game.
Here are the Blue Devils’ winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Florida State: 71.6%
- vs. SMU: 38.1%
- at Miami (FL): 12.8%
- at NC State: 50.4%
- vs. Virginia Tech: 49.6%
- at Wake Forest: 58.9%
Prediction for Florida State vs. Duke
Let’s address the elephant in the room. This matchup didn’t even warrant a preseason line, but if it had, you could’ve probably snagged Manny Diaz’s Duke squad at +28 or some other sky-high number.
Even the biggest skeptics of Florida State couldn’t have predicted this—1-5 feels like a made-up record for a team that went undefeated in the regular season last year.
Meanwhile, Duke sits at 5-1 in Manny Diaz’s first season after a loss to Georgia Tech. They’re now just one win away from bowl eligibility. Given the circumstances, it’s almost surprising that Duke isn’t favored by more.
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That said, things aren’t as rosy for Duke as they might seem. Of their five wins, only UConn and Northwestern boast records of .500 or better, and neither of those teams has exactly built a résumé of quality wins.
Florida State might be on quit watch, but their schedule hasn’t done them any favors. With Brock Glenn seemingly taking over at quarterback, the Seminoles could have the edge under center on Friday.
Duke’s victories have often come in ugly fashion against weaker opponents. While there’s something to be said for that, I’m not ready to crown the Blue Devils as true ACC contenders.
Honestly, I don’t feel great about this one. Florida State probably has more talent, but Duke seems to have the greater drive to win, with more on the line.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Duke pulls this out, but Florida State has managed to hold its own against teams that don’t have elite offenses. The key battle here is between Duke’s offensive line and the Seminoles’ defensive line.
At some point, pride has to kick in for that Seminole defense. If Duke dominates the trenches, it’s time to bet against the Seminoles for the rest of the season. But if they can step up and limit Duke’s run game, Maalik Murphy might find himself struggling. This game could hinge on a late turnover.
I might regret backing the Seminoles, but I’m giving them one last shot to prove they haven’t given up and can beat less talented teams. I don’t feel confident about it, but I’m taking the Seminoles in a sloppy, low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Florida State 22, Duke 16
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