When the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs meet on Wednesday night, it’ll be yet another SEC matchup featuring highly-ranked opponents. Alabama comes in with a 6-1 conference record while Mississippi State looks to improve upon their 4-3 SEC record.
In our Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction, we’ll break down our thoughts on the spread, total, and money line in this highly-anticipated contest in Starkville, Mississippi. Will the head-scratching second-half benching of Crimson Tide lead-guard Mark Sears in Alabama’s last game affect anything betting-wise? Can the Bulldogs ride their home crowd and avoid falling to .500 in conference? Find out below.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025.
- Spread
Mississippi State -1 - Moneyline
Mississippi State -110, Alabama -110 - Over/Under
166 points - Game Time
Wednesday, Jan. 29, 9:00 ET - Location
Humphrey Coliseum | Starkville, MS - How To Watch
SEC Network
Alabama has only been involved in five games in which the line has been under five points, either as a favorite or underdog. They hold a 4-1 record in such games, with an average margin of 4.4. They’ve over/under track record is perfectly even at 10-10. Alabama is 3-0 on the road in SEC play.
The Bulldogs have a 3-1 record in their games with the spread of under five points either way. Amazingly, Mississippi State also has 10 games going over the listed points total and 10 games going under. They hold a 2-1 record at home against conference opponents.
Also See: Texas vs. Ole Miss Prediction
Prediction for Alabama vs. Mississippi State
Alabama has impressed in conference play, rising to the No. 4 ranking in the country. Mississippi State has stumbled of late, losing three of its last five in a tough stretch against four ranked opponents.
The Crimson Tide face an off-the-court issue, however, that may affect the betting outcome. Preseason All-American point guard Mark Sears was benched for the entire second-half of Alabama’s 80-73 victory on Saturday over the LSU Tigers. Head coach Nate Oats deflected when asked for reasoning, saying other players gave the team a better chance to win.
Sears is expected to start and play his normal minutes; in what way will that affect the game?
My feeling is that Sears will come out firing. The bet that I’d point to regarding that thought is the game prop of Alabama race to 10 points in the first half. The odds are even — but with an ultra-motivated star and the Crimson Tide hoping to shut-down the Mississippi State crowd, I expect Alabama to jump to an early lead.
Outside of that, there’s not much to gain with betting the spread or total. The spread is currently -1 for Mississippi State, but it wouldn’t be a shock if it flipped the other way in the hours before tip-off. Both teams are incredibly even in terms of over/under outcomes on the season.
MORE: McDonald’s All-American Rosters
The best value will be on either team to win outright. Alabama is one of the top four teams in the nation for a reason — and excellence on the road is one of them. They’re 3-0 on the road with an average margin of victory of 10.3 points in SEC play, with games against No. 12 Kentucky and No. 13 Texas A&M included.
The Bulldogs on the other hand, have shown the ability to drop a game at home, falling to Kentucky by five.
Everything points towards Alabama — admittedly, not a great sign — but give me the Crimson Tide outright in Starkville. Sears will come out firing and lead his team to another ranked victory.
Prediction: Alabama 87, Mississippi State 82
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