Illinois vs. Rutgers Prediction: Luke Altmyer Rises to Occasion, Upsets Scarlet Knights On the Road

    Our Illinois vs. Rutgers prediction breaks down this intriguing Big Ten showdown between two up-and-coming programs eager to make their mark in 2024.

    This weekend, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights host the Illinois Fighting Illini in Piscataway. Rutgers, now 6-4, enters the game riding the momentum of back-to-back wins and a strong 4-2 home record. The Scarlet Knights have been tough to beat on their home turf, showing resilience in front of their fans.

    On the other side, Illinois comes in at 7-3, looking to add another chapter to a season filled with promise. With an offense averaging 374 yards and 27.1 points per game, the Illini have showcased balance but face the challenge of a 1-2 record on the road. This game is about more than just a win—it’s an opportunity for both teams to make a statement in the Big Ten, as our Illinois vs. Rutgers prediction breaks down.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Illinois vs. Rutgers Betting Preview

    All Illinois vs. Rutgers odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Illinois -4
    • Spread
      Rutgers -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Rutgers -122, Illinois +102
    • Over/Under
      47 points
    • Game time
      Noon ET
    • Location
      SHI Stadium | Piscataway, NJ
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      50 degrees, mostly cloudy, 12 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      Peacock

    Rutgers initially opened as a slim favorite at -1. That number floated back and forth from -1 to a pick ’em until Illinois became the favorite by a single point. But it has now moved back to Rutgers by two points.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    The total opened at 50.5 and dropped as low as 46.5 before rising again and settling at 47.5. Like the spread, the total will likely see more action, resulting in a moving line.

    Illinois’s Winning Probability

    According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Illini have a 61.1% chance of defeating the Scarlet Knights on Saturday.

    If the win probabilities hold, Illinois will finish its 2024 campaign at 9-3. This would be the most wins during the Brett Bielema era and the most for an Illini football team since Illinois finished 9-4 under Ron Zook in 2007.

    • at Rutgers: 61.1%
    • at Northwestern: 79.6%

    Rutgers’s Winning Probability

    According to the CFN FPM, Rutgers has a 38.9% chance of defeating Illinois on Saturday.

    If the win probabilities hold, the Scarlet Knights would finish 2024 at 7-5. This would be the second consecutive season with seven wins under Greg Schiano, and Rutgers would be in search of their second straight bowl victory.

    • vs. Illinois: 38.9%
    • at Michigan State: 50.8%

    Prediction for Illinois vs. Rutgers

    Illinois has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, outperforming expectations by covering the spread in six of their ten games and breezing past their preseason win total.

    The Illini came out of the gates strong, ripping off a four-game winning streak that included a gritty effort against Penn State. However, a midseason slump saw them fall short of the spread in three of four games before bouncing back in a big way last week with a dominant 27-3 victory over Michigan State, easily covering the 1.5-point line.

    MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings

    In that win, Illinois showcased their signature resilience. They piled up 369 total yards, converted 8-of-15 third downs, and stifled Michigan State’s offense, holding them to just 2-of-15 on third downs. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter that they truly pulled away, but the defensive discipline they displayed all game long was the difference.

    Rutgers, meanwhile, showed flashes of their offensive potential in a 31-17 win over Maryland. Athan Kaliakmanis threw for 238 yards, while Kyle Monangai chipped in 97 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, contributing to the Scarlet Knights’ 370 total yards.

    That said, Rutgers’ defensive struggles remain an issue. They gave up 457 total yards to Maryland, including 335 through the air. Those vulnerabilities could prove costly against an Illinois team that thrives on balance and capitalizing on key moments.

    Both teams come into this matchup with momentum, and Rutgers has been averaging 26 points per game over the past month. Still, Illinois’ steady defense and ability to execute in clutch situations give them a clear advantage.

    I like Illinois to take care of business on the road. Look for the Illini to find success in the passing game and come up with the defensive stops needed to secure another win—and another cover.

    Prediction: Illinois 30, Rutgers 24

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