While Michigan nearly suffered a second-half malaise against Minnesota, Ohio State ruthlessly handled Michigan State, and Oregon rumbled past UCLA in the Rose Bowl, Penn State prevailing over Illinois pushes them into conference contention in our latest Big Ten predictions powered by the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
Big Ten Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 Big Ten Championship ahead of Week 5:
- Oregon Ducks – 30.8%
- Penn State Nittany Lions – 24.3%
- Ohio State Buckeyes – 23.4%
- Michigan Wolverines – 8.6%
- USC Trojans – 7.1%
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights – 1.5%
- Iowa Hawkeyes – 1.2%
- Indiana Hoosiers – 1.2%
- Illinois Fighting Illini – 1%
- Nebraska Cornhuskers – 0.4%
- Minnesota Golden Gophers – 0.3%
- Maryland Terrapins – 0.2%
- Wisconsin Badgers – 0.1%
- Washington Huskies – 0%
- Michigan State Spartans – 0%
- UCLA Bruins – 0%
- Northwestern Wildcats – 0%
- Purdue Boilermakers – 0%
Oregon Ducks – 30.8%
After coming close to the College Football Playoff as a Pac-12 outfit one year ago, the Oregon Ducks entered the Big Ten this offseason with the expectation that they’d immediately assert themselves as a title contender. After one conference outing against a former Pac-12 foe, that presumption appears well-placed with Dan Lanning’s team atop our Big Ten predictions.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Ducks only rank sixth in the AP Poll Top 25 right now after a less-than-scintillating start to the year, but the CFN FPM gives them a 21.1% chance of going undefeated, helping power their 30.8% chance of winning the Big Ten. Dillon Gabriel has proven ruthlessly efficient in driving the offense, while the defense has been extremely stingy against the passing game so far.
Penn State Nittany Lions – 24.3%
You have to feel a little bit sorry for the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been a perennial bridesmaid to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten in recent years. Now they’re free from the shackles of a division that contained both teams, the addition of Oregon stands in the way of Big Ten glory for James Franklin’s team.
That said, Penn State continues to prove it belongs in the conference conversation. The defense allowed just seven points to an Illinois offense that had averaged 32.3 points per game on their way to a 4-0 start. Meanwhile, Andy Kotelnicki’s new-look offense sees the program lead the way in the conference for touchdown passes (12) and yards per attempt (10.9).
Ohio State Buckeyes – 23.4%
The pressure is on Ryan Day to deliver some tangible success for the Ohio State Buckeyes this season after watching Michigan win the conference crown the last three seasons. Thankfully for Day and the Buckeyes, they have been able to attract some of the top transfer portal talent, recruit to a high level, and retain some of their top talent on the roster using the benefits of NIL.
Through four games, the results have been promising. Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense (6.8 points per game) while ranking in the top 10 for scoring (48.8 PPG) and total offense (534.8.0 yards per game). The Buckeyes continue to lead the way in producing electric wide receivers, with Jeremiah Smith routinely pulling off highlights-reel plays that power the offense.
Michigan Wolverines – 8.6%
Michigan continues to be a conundrum in the 2024 college football season. Sherrone Moore’s team appeared to find their offensive identity in the Week 4 win over the USC Trojans and early in the Week 5 game against Minnesota they continued to impress on the ground, powered by a running back in Kalel Mullings who is emerging as one of the best in the nation.
Yet, in the second half, a defense that is meant to be the foundation of their success floundered, and Minnesota almost came back to claim a famous win. You don’t get anything for almost, of course, and the Wolverines are unbeaten in conference play. But as our Big Ten predictions showcase, they may be slipping further away from the top three teams as 2024 rolls on.
USC Trojans – 7.1%
USC was the anti-Michigan in Week 5. While the Wolverines raced out to a lead and watched it almost whittle away, the Trojans let Wisconsin get a 21-10 head start by halftime before clawing their way back into the game in the third quarter and ultimately shut out the Badgers offense in the final 30 minutes to record what appeared from the box score to be a comfortable win.
USC has the fourth-most difficult strength of schedule in the Big Ten, and their performances will need to improve to stand any chance of competing for the conference crown. The CFN FPM gives them a 7.1% chance of lifting the trophy in Lucas Oil come December, while our Big Ten predictions give Lincoln Riley’s team just a 2.1% chance of winning their remaining games.
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