The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff has brought us some exciting first-ever matchups, including a marquee showdown between the Clemson Tigers and Texas Longhorns in the first round.
So, who takes the win? Our Clemson vs. Texas prediction dives into all the key details—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both programs as they face off in this historic CFP opening-round clash.
Clemson vs. Texas College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -9 - Spread
Texas -11.5 - Moneyline
Texas -410, Clemson +320 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 21 - Location
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
TNT/Max
Neither of these teams has cashed bettors out this year … unless you bet against them. Clemson and Texas are both 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
It’s also worth noting Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its previous six outings against SEC opponents.
The under has been the play for both squads as well, with Tigers contests going below the total in four of the past six and Longhorns bouts failing to hit the over in eight of nine.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
At one point, it looked like the Tigers wouldn’t even make the ACC Championship Game. But after a Miami Hurricanes loss in the regular-season finale and a Clemson win in the ACC title game, they’re suddenly right back in the College Football Playoff mix.
That said, their playoff journey might end quickly. The FPM gives Dabo Swinney’s squad less than a 25% chance to upset the Longhorns in Austin.
- at Texas: 24.7%
Texas’ Winning Probability
The Longhorns haven’t looked their best since their regular-season loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, and the overtime heartbreak in the SEC Championship Game has definitely tempered expectations heading into the CFP. Even so, Steve Sarkisian has assembled too much talent to bow out in Round 1.
- vs. Clemson: 75.3%
Prediction for Clemson vs. Texas
Quinn Ewers might not be the long-term answer for Texas, but that won’t matter much against Clemson. The Longhorns are simply a tough matchup for the Tigers.
First, Clemson’s weakness is defending the run—they rank 53rd in success rate and 73rd in rushing yards allowed per game (150.5). Second, Texas’ defense is built to disrupt any offensive rhythm, boasting elite rankings across multiple key metrics:
- EPA: 3rd
- Dropback success rate: 5th
- Net points per drive: 1st
- Third-down conversion rate: 6th
- Tackles for loss: 12th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Even if T.J. Parker and Clemson’s pass rush manages to rattle Ewers, Texas’ ground game, led by a healthy Kelvin Banks Jr., should be enough to carry the offense.
On the flip side, Clemson might lean heavily on Cade Klubnik, potentially abandoning the run early. While Klubnik has outperformed Ewers this season, he’s still a young quarterback with some exploitable flaws—flaws South Carolina exposed not too long ago.
Penalties (Clemson 23rd, Texas 93rd) and turnover margin (Clemson +16, Texas +6) give the Tigers some hope of keeping it close, but the Longhorns’ dominant defense will ultimately prove too much for Clemson to overcome.
Prediction: Texas 31, Clemson 23
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