The No. 6 seed West Virginia Mountaineers (25-7) take on the No. 3 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (28-7) in a high-stakes NCAA Tournament second-round battle. With a Sweet 16 berth on the line, both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths.
West Virginia, boasting a solid 20-10 ATS record, is a slight 1.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, North Carolina, despite its lower ATS record (17-17), remains a formidable force. With contrasting styles and elite defenses, this game promises to be a nail-biter.
West Virginia vs. North Carolina Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. North Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of March 22, 2025.
- Spread: West Virginia -1.5
- Moneyline: West Virginia -121, North Carolina +100
- Over/Under: 126.5 points
- Game Time: Monday, March 24, 2025, at 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Carmichael Arena | Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- How to Watch: ESPN2
West Virginia enters this matchup with a strong track record as a favorite, covering in 19 of their 27 games as a 1-point favorite or more. Additionally, the Mountaineers have hit the over in 17 of their 30 games this season, showcasing their ability to put up points.
North Carolina, on the other hand, has been less reliable against the spread, covering in just 3 of 6 games when playing as an underdog of at least 1 point. However, their ability to keep games under the total suggests they may look to control the tempo and rely on their defensive strengths.
West Virginia vs. North Carolina CSN Winning Probability
- CSN Winning Probability: North Carolina 52.3%, West Virginia 47.7%
Despite West Virginia being favored by Vegas oddsmakers, CSN analytics slightly favor North Carolina. This suggests a close game that could go either way. The Mountaineers’ defensive prowess, allowing just 55.6 points per game (15th in the nation), could give them an edge, while North Carolina’s balanced scoring and strong rebounding may tilt the scale in their favor.
Prediction for West Virginia vs. North Carolina
Both teams come into this game with strong defensive identities. West Virginia is outscoring opponents by an impressive 20.3 points per game, while North Carolina’s margin sits at 13.0 points per game.
The key to this game may lie in the Tar Heels’ ability to slow down the Mountaineers’ efficient offense. If North Carolina can control the pace and limit West Virginia’s perimeter shooting, they could secure a Sweet 16 berth.
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However, West Virginia’s recent offensive form, averaging 70.9 points per game in their last 10 contests, suggests they are peaking at the right time. Their ability to consistently cover the spread gives them a slight edge in what should be a tightly contested battle.
Prediction: West Virginia 70, North Carolina 65
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