USC hosts their first conference game as a member of the Big Ten, welcoming in Wisconsin as both teams look to rebound in Week 5. Which team has the biggest advantage in our Wisconsin vs. USC prediction?
Wisconsin vs. USC Betting Preview
All Wisconsin vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USC -9 - Spread
USC -14.5 - Moneyline
Wisconsin +440, USC -600 - Over/Under
50.5 - Game Time
Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, mostly sunny - How To Watch
CBS
This line has jumped a ton since it opened as USC -6. It climbed above two touchdowns to USC -15.5, primarily due to USC’s opening week win over LSU and Wisconsin being dominated by Alabama at home two weeks ago, 42-10. Finally it settled at -14.5 just hours before kickoff.
The total hasn’t seen quite as much movement, falling from the opening number of 53.5 down to 50.5.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
USC suffered its first loss against the spread (ATS) on Saturday. As -4.5 road favorites at Michigan, they fell on a last-second Michigan touchdown 27-24. They come into this one 2-1 ATS on the season.
Wisconsin has struggled against the spread, failing to cover in all three of its early season contests, twice as a favorite and once as an underdog.
Remaining Wisconsin Winning Probabilities
Wisconsin is a heavy underdog against USC, and for good reason. CFN’s Football Playoff Meter gives Wisconsin just a 24.9% chance to win against the Trojans entering their Week 5 clash.
The Badgers will return to the ‘friendly’ confines of the ‘old Big Ten’ opponents over the next few weeks, seeing their winning probabilities return to normal rates.
- Purdue 71.6%
- @ Rutgers 49.2%
- @ Northwestern 73.8%
- Penn State 19.4%
- @ Iowa 36.4%
- Oregon 15.8%
- @ Nebraska 45.7%
- Minnesota 63.1%
Wisconsin should be favored in half of their remaining games with the potential chance at a bowl game now in question if they can’t improve from their recent showings.
Remaining USC Winning Probabilities
Using the same CFN Strength of Schedule and FPM metrics at our disposal, we look at just how the road looks ahead for the Trojans. They got their Michigan game out early and didn’t have Ohio State or Oregon on their schedule, but that doesn’t mean it’s clear sailing.
Sure, they should be favored in all but one of their matchups, but they do get Penn State at home in a bit of a reprieve.
- @ Minnesota 73.0%
- Penn State 36.9%
- @ Maryland 68.8%
- Rutgers 78.1%
- @ Washington 61.1%
- Nebraska 74.6%
- @ UCLA 79.3%
- Notre Dame 52.5%
Prediction for Wisconsin vs. USC
I’ve only picked one Wisconsin game in 2024 and called for Wisconsin to be overwhelmed by Alabama at home, mainly because their offense can’t figure it out.
Now with veteran quarterback and Miami transfer Van Dyke out for the season, I don’t see things getting much better for the Badgers. When Longo was hired as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin under Luke Fickell, it appeared to be what the Badgers needed.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
They veered away from the traditional Wisconsin ground-and-pound mentality and instituted more of the air raid attack that Longo ran at North Carolina. The problem is that it just hasn’t happened consistently.
Wisconsin will have to learn from USC’s game against Michigan. The Wolverines finished with just 32 passing yards but ran for 290 yards and scored 27 points to beat the Trojans. The Badgers will have to get the ground game going in this one while they control the ball and the clock to keep things close.
I’m also not convinced that Locke is a massive downgrade at quarterback for the Badgers. Locke was reportedly in a tight competition with Van Dyke for the starting job throughout much of the offseason, and he also played well during garbage time against Alabama.
Locke came in, finished 13-of-26 passing for 125 yards, and threw for the lone Badger touchdown on the day against Alabama. With extra time to prepare during the bye week, Locke could be ready to seamlessly take over Wisconsin’s offense in this crucial Big Ten matchup.
While I like USC in this one, I believe they may be a bit overvalued, combined with a bit of an overreaction to the Badgers missing Van Dyke on offense. The Badgers keep this one close enough.
The Prediction: USC 31, Wisconsin 23
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.