The MAC remains the most unpredictable conference in FBS college football, with six teams separated by just one game at the top. Among them are the Western Michigan Broncos, who need to sidestep a potential letdown against their rival, the Central Michigan Chippewas, to keep their bowl hopes alive heading into the final week of the season.
While the Broncos look stronger on paper, matchups between Michigan’s directional schools rarely follow the script. Can Western Michigan come out on top? Check out our Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan prediction to see where we stand.
Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan Betting Preview
All Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Michigan -6 - Spread
Western Michigan -6 - Moneyline
Western Michigan -218, Central Michigan +180 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Nov. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kelly/Shorts Stadium | Mount Pleasant, Michigan - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, rainy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Western Michigan got off to a slow start against a brutal non-conference slate but looked to have turned things around early in MAC play. But the Broncos are 0-2 since the conference games have moved to the midweek.
Central Michigan has struggled recently, riding a five-game losing streak, but the Chippewas have been substantially better at home than on the road.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread here is intriguing, as the Broncos started as 8.5-point favorites before the line dropped. With a total of 56.5, there’s an implied final score near 32-25 in favor of Western Michigan.
Western Michigan’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit lower on Western Michigan’s chances than the initial Vegas spread, and it seems like the betting public agrees with the line continuing to drop. The metric gives the Broncos a winning probability of 64.6%, which is close to their chances next week as well.
- at Central Michigan: 64.6%
- vs. Eastern Michigan: 65.7%
Central Michigan’s Winning Probability
Central Michigan desperately wants to finish the year on a high note, but it will be difficult. FPM gives the Chippewas a 48% chance to lose both of their remaining games, with a 35.4% chance to win on Tuesday.
- vs. Western Michigan: 35.4%
- at Northern Illinois: 25.1%
Prediction for Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan
If any team in the MAC has faced a particularly brutal schedule, it’s Central Michigan. The Chippewas are 0-4 against the conference’s top four teams, with two of those losses coming on the road.
That said, the Chippewas play much better at home, and they match up well against Western Michigan—especially when they have the ball.
Central Michigan’s offense is straightforward: the passing game lacks consistency, but their rushing attack is both diverse and dangerous.
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This poses a significant challenge for Western Michigan’s defense, which struggles to stop the run. The Broncos allow over five yards per carry and nearly 200 rushing yards per game—bad news against a Central Michigan ground game that ranks inside the top 40 nationally.
On top of that, Western Michigan ranks near the bottom of the MAC in opponent scoring efficiency, allowing 4.6 points per scoring opportunity.
All of this has me leaning toward the Chippewas at home. Neither team is playing its best football right now—Central Michigan has struggled, but Western Michigan has dropped two straight and is 2-4 on the road.
The Chippewas have the tools to rack up big numbers on the ground, potentially eclipsing 200 rushing yards. If their defense can apply enough pressure to slow down a Western Michigan offense that’s explosive but inconsistent on a play-to-play basis, this one could tilt their way.
The key for the Broncos will be star running back Jaden Nixon. If Nixon finds his rhythm, Western Michigan has the firepower to win a shootout.
Ultimately, I think the Broncos’ defense will make a late play—perhaps a turnover—to escape with the win. But I like the Chippewas to cover the spread.
Prediction: Western Michigan 31, Central Michigan 28
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