The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and James Madison Dukes are set to face off for the first time in this year’s Boca Raton Bowl, but both teams head into the matchup with uncertainty at the quarterback position.
Who will prevail? Our Western Kentucky vs. James Madison prediction dives into all the key details — from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams in this highly anticipated Boca Raton Bowl showdown.
Western Kentucky vs. James MadisonBoca Raton Bowl Betting Preview
All Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
James Madison -3.5 - Spread
James Madison -7.5 - Moneyline
James Madison -285, Western Kentucky +230 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
5:30 ET, Wednesday, Dec. 18 - Location
FAU Stadium | Boca Raton, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
The Hilltoppers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, and six of their last nine matchups have gone under the total. Not all that appealing.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, the Dukes haven’t looked all that much better. They are 2-4 ATS in their previous six matchups, and the under has hit in six of their past eight.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Tyson Helton has been at Western Kentucky’s helm for the last six seasons. This is his sixth straight bowl game. The Hilltoppers have only lost once in the postseason, and they’ll hope to keep it that way against James Madison.
- at James Madison: 43.6%
James Madison’s Winning Probability
The Marshall Thundering Herd are the 2024 Sun Belt champions, thumping the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 31-3 for the right to the title. The Dukes are likely sick that they didn’t make the championship at 8-4 on the year, as they gave Marshall a run for its money in the regular-season finale (35-33).
- vs. Western Kentucky: 56.4%
Prediction for Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Western Kentucky has a strong track record in December, closing out 10 of its last 13 games in the month with victories. But will their matchup against James Madison follow the same script?
Both teams find themselves without their starting quarterbacks — Caden Veltkamp is in the transfer portal, and Alonza Barnett III is sidelined with an injury. Predicting the outcome feels like a tough ask … but not an impossible one.
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For Western Kentucky, sophomore Turner Helton seems poised to step into the spotlight. Helton, who has completed 11 of 12 passes for 97 yards, one touchdown, and one interception (all in 2023), will be the Hilltoppers’ third starting QB this season after T.J. Finley’s injury led to Veltkamp taking the reins.
That’s a concerning trend for a team that ranks among the top 40 in pass play rate. Meanwhile, James Madison sits at 85th in that category, easing the pressure on their backup, Dylan Morris. The redshirt senior and former Washington Huskie brings experience that could prove critical.
Adding to Western Kentucky’s woes:
- Their defense has struggled mightily against the run, surrendering 221.9 rushing yards per game — the fifth-most in the nation
- James Madison boasts the 11th-best stop rate in the country, allowing only 1.57 points per drive — better than Penn State, Oregon, SMU, and Clemson
With a seasoned quarterback under center, a run-heavy offense perfectly suited to exploit Western Kentucky’s glaring defensive weakness, and a defense more than capable of handling a young QB, the Dukes look primed to dominate.
I’m confidently taking James Madison to win and cover with ease in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Prediction: James Madison 31, Western Kentucky 17
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