USC vs. UCLA Prediction: Jayden Maiava Propels Trojans to Big Rivalry Victory

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    The Crosstown Cup rivalry between the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins is one of college football’s most iconic showdowns, made even more unforgettable by the vivid clash of both teams in their bold home jerseys.

    The Trojans lead the all-time series (50-34-7), but the Bruins left their mark last season with a commanding 38-20 win.

    In our USC vs. UCLA prediction, we break down the matchup in detail, offering key betting insights to help you make smarter, more confident picks.

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    USC vs. UCLA Betting Preview

    All USC vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      USC -2
    • Spread
      USC -5
    • Moneyline
      USC -180, UCLA +150
    • Over/Under
      53 points
    • Game Time
      10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 23
    • Location
      Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      59 degrees, 3 mph winds, showers
    • How To Watch
      NBC

    The Trojans have been abysmal on the road recently, going 0-4 against the spread. Of course, they won’t need to travel far for this one, with the Rose Bowl just a 40-minute drive from the Coliseum.

    The Bruins, meanwhile, are on the come-up after a poor start to the year, going 4-1 ATS in their last five.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    However, neither side has been particularly exciting when it comes to the total:

    • The under has hit in four of UCLA’s last five contests.
    • The over has cashed in three of USC’s previous five outings.

    USC’s Winning Probability

    The Trojans may not be playing for a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff or the Big Ten Championship, but they could still make a bowl game with just one more win. Yet, their next two opponents won’t make it easy: bitter rival UCLA and the top-10 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

    • at UCLA: 53.4%
    • vs. Notre Dame: 27.0%

    UCLA’s Winning Probability

    Following a 1-5 start, it appeared the Bruins were destined for obscurity in Year 1 of the DeShaun Foster era. Instead, they are now just two wins away from bowl eligibility — though it won’t be easy to win out. UCLA faces crosstown rival USC and the Fresno State Bulldogs to end the year, who it hasn’t defeated since 2000.

    • vs. USC: 46.6%
    • vs. Fresno State: 79.6%

    Prediction for USC vs. UCLA

    UCLA and USC find themselves in unfamiliar territory, both sitting at 3-5 in Big Ten play and scrambling to secure bowl eligibility. For the Bruins, it’s do-or-die in Foster’s debut season—they need to win out. Meanwhile, the Trojans are one victory away from keeping their season alive.

    USC took a step forward in Week 12, earning a 28-20 win over Nebraska. Jayden Maiava shined in his first start in Los Angeles, completing 25 of 35 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns while avoiding costly mistakes. The UNLV transfer’s steady play has provided a much-needed spark for the Trojans.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Maiava’s precision has been instrumental in keeping USC’s offense among the nation’s best in success rate (21st). His poise under pressure could make all the difference against a struggling UCLA defense.

    Defensively, the Bruins are in dire straits. UCLA ranks near the bottom nationally in quality drives allowed, defensive finishing drives, and net points allowed per drive. Opposing quarterbacks have picked apart their secondary, with UCLA sitting at 129th in contested catches forced and 118th in defensive dropback success rate.

    Against a poised passer like Maiava, those vulnerabilities could prove costly.

    The Bruins’ offensive struggles are just as glaring. They managed just 4.2 yards per play in Week 12 against Washington, failing to generate explosive drives. Even when they reach scoring opportunities, their inefficiency lingers—they’ve averaged just three points per trip across 50 extended red-zone possessions this season.

    QB Ethan Garbers faces an uphill battle against a USC defense built to stifle big plays, ranking second nationally in limiting explosive passes. The Trojans also rank in the top 30 in passing efficiency on defensive passing downs, giving them a significant edge over UCLA’s sputtering offense.

    With both teams relying heavily on their passing games, the advantage tilts toward Maiava and USC. The Trojans’ defense, ranked 29th in EPA per dropback, is better equipped to handle the high-volume aerial assault expected in this rivalry matchup.

    Prediction: USC 21, UCLA 17

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