Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (5) Madison Keys
Date: January 9, 2026
Tournament: Brisbane International
Round: Quarter-finals
Category: WTA 500
Venue: Queensland Tennis Centre, Brisbane, Australia
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $1,206,446
Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Preview
Top seed and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will face fifth seed Madison Keys in the quarterfinals of the Brisbane International 2026 on Friday, January 9.
Sabalenka emphatically kicked off her 2026 season, cruising to a dominant 6–0, 6–1 victory over Cristina Bucsa in the second round. She backed it up with a 6–3, 6–3 win over veteran Sorana Cirstea in the third round, winning 78% of points on her first serve and 33 of 66 points on return, while breaking serve four times.
Keys, meanwhile, began her campaign with a 6–4, 6–3 win over compatriot McCartney Kessler. Her third-round clash against Diana Shnaider proved far more demanding, as Keys rallied from a set down to claim a 6–7(5), 7–6(5), 7–6(4) victory. The match, which lasted two hours and 59 minutes, marked the first triple tie-break encounter of her career.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head
Sabalenka holds a 5–2 lead in the head-to-head against Keys and dominated their most recent meeting at Indian Wells last year, winning 6–0, 6–1. She also leads their hard-court rivalry 4–1.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Odds
Odds to be added once available.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction
Sabalenka has been in imperious form so far in the two matches she’s played, dropping just seven games. She did not face a single break point in her opening round, winning 80% of points on her first serve and an impressive 83% on her second. In her next outing, she showcased the full range of her power and consistency from the baseline, winning 78% of first-serve points and claiming half of the total points on return.
Keys also began her campaign with a solid win, but encountered far greater resistance in her third-round clash with Shnaider. She struggled at times on serve and committed more unforced errors than she would have liked, yet demonstrated remarkable resilience to grind out the final two sets under intense pressure.
Sabalenka enters the quarterfinal as the fresher player, having spent significantly less time on court than Keys, who endured nearly three hours in her previous match. Sabalenka’s dominant win in their most recent meeting, in which she dropped just one game, should further bolster her confidence. Courtesy of her strong record at the start of the season, the top seed appears well-positioned to advance from this contest.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Pick
Pick 1: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.
Pick 2: There will be at least 20 games.
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