Alabama vs. Georgia was billed as the game of the season, and it didn’t fail to meet up to expectations. Furthermore, the Crimson Tide win enhances their chances of challenging at the top and shakes up our latest SEC predictions.
SEC Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below, are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 SEC Championship ahead of Week 6:
- Texas Longhorns – 37.1%
- Alabama Crimson Tide – 14.4%
- Georgia Bulldogs – 13.1%
- Tennessee Volunteers – 10.1%
- LSU Tigers – 9.3%
- Missouri Tigers – 7.7%
- Ole Miss Rebels – 4.2%
- Texas A&M Aggies – 2.8%
- South Carolina Gamecocks – 0.7%
- Kentucky Wildcats – 0.4%
- Oklahoma Sooners – 0.1%
- Arkansas Razorbacks – 0.1%
- Auburn Tigers – 0.1%
- Florida Gators – 0%
- Mississippi State Bulldogs – 0%
- Vanderbilt Commodores – 0%
Texas Longhorns – 37.1%
Texas got their SEC campaign off to a winning start with a comfortable 35-13 victory over Mississippi State in Week 5. The inaugural conference success sends State Sarkisian’s team into the bye week with a perfect 5-0 record but things got significantly harder after their rest week. An Oklahoma/Georgia double-header will be the true test of the Longhorns mettle.
However, the program currently ranks in the top 10 for scoring (2nd) and total defense (6th), and its offensive firepower, whether led by Arch Manning or Quinn Ewers, makes it a favorite whoever it faces. Texas currently has a projected 11-1 record and a 31.3% chance of winning out.
Our latest SEC predictions see them winning the conference with a 37.1% chance of lifting the crown per CFN FPM.
Alabama Crimson Tide – 14.4%
Remember when Nick Saban retired, several recruits withdrew their commitment to the program, and multiple players entered the college football transfer portal? That was a fun time if you were a fan of any other SEC program not nicknamed the Crimson Tide. Any thoughts of a post-Saban blip on the Alabama football landscape were vanquished on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.
Although Texas is still the favorite in our SEC predictions, Alabama’s win over Georgia on Saturday night and the dominant nature of their offense (particularly Jalen Milroe and teenage sensation Ryan Williams) saw the chances of Kalen DeBoer’s team challenging for a conference crown climb significantly. However, they still have to face four AP Poll-ranked teams.
Georgia Bulldogs – 13.1%
Although defeat to Alabama hits Georgia’s chances of winning the SEC title hard, it isn’t a knockout blow to Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs. With a clash against Texas in Austin on October 19, they still have their destiny in their own hands, while Ole Miss’ defeat to Kentucky raises question marks about Lane Kiffin’s team and its ability to get to the conference title game.
Although Jalen Milroe gashed the Georgia defense on Saturday night, the good news is they won’t face a quarterback on their remaining schedule who poses such a devastating dual threat. Meanwhile, you likely won’t see such another performance from Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck that was so out-of-character. Discounting Georgia is a dangerous game, and the Auburn game in Week 6 offers perfect bounceback potential.
Tennessee Volunteers – 10.1%
Tennessee was on a bye in Week 5, recovering from their win over the Oklahoma Sooners and loading up for their run at the conference title. Events around them — mainly Alabama winning and Ole Miss losing — had a minor impact on the Volunteers’ standing in the SEC predictions, and they now have a 10.1% chance of winning the conference.
Meanwhile, they have a 66.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff according to the CFN FPM. Nico Iamaleava is leading the top-ranked scoring offense in the SEC like a seasoned veteran, while the defense is allowing just 7.0 points per game. They still have to face Alabama in Neyland and take a road trip to Athens but they have an 10.5% shot of winning out.
LSU Tigers – 9.3%
The LSU Tigers head into a Week 6 bye with a 9.3% chance of winning the conference in our latest SEC predictions. Brian Kelly’s team made light work of out-of-conference opponent South Alabama in a Week 5 game that could have had upset potential as the Tigers adjusted to life without star defensive talent Harold Perkins against a free-scoring Jaguars offense.
An opening weekend loss to USC may not contribute to their SEC efforts, but it does impact a projected 9-3 record. Meanwhile, they face four teams who are ranked by the AP Poll, contributing to a 7.7% chance of winning out. Hosting Ole Miss in Week 7 will be the first significant test of whether the Tigers can compete for the title in 2024.
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