What a weekend it was in the SEC. The Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Ole Miss Rebels all stumbled on the same Saturday, which might make you think the path to the SEC Championship is finally clearing up.
Think again. We’ve got a whole maze of tiebreaking procedures to sort through. Let’s dive in.
SEC Championship Game Odds
Using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game, the SEC Championship Game odds are here before Vegas’ lines are.
- Georgia: 49.47%
- Texas: 41.66%
- Texas A&M: 8.47%
- Tennessee: 0.00%
We locked in the results from each game in the SEC through Week 13. Then, we simulated the final week of the SEC season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final two weeks of action in the process. That gave us the SEC Championship winning probability for each team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Georgia made it on all 100% of simulations, while Texas made the game on over 75% of the simulations.
Updated SEC Standings
- Texas Longhorns 6-1 SEC (10-1 overall)
- Georgia Bulldogs 6-2 (9-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers 5-2 (9-2)
- Texas A&M Aggies 5-2 (8-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 5-3 (8-3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 4-3 (8-3)
- LSU Tigers 4-3 (7-4)
- Missouri Tigers 4-3 (8-3)
- Ole Miss Rebels 4-3 (8-3)
- Florida Gators 4-4 (6-5)
- Arkansas Razorbacks 3-4 (6-5)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 3-4 (6-5)
- Oklahoma Sooners 2-5 (6-5)
- Auburn Tigers 2-5 (5-6)
- Kentucky Wildcats 1-7 (4-7)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0-7 (2-9)
The race is on for the top spot with Texas having the advantage there. Let’s get into the tiebreaking scenarios based on each result that could happen.
If Texas Beats Texas A&M
The Longhorns would play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, regardless of what Tennessee does vs. Vanderbilt
If Texas A&M Beats Texas
The Aggies would play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, regardless of what Tennessee does vs. Vanderbilt
In reality, the way the tiebreakers are set up, Tennessee may not actually be mathematically involved in these situations whatsoever in Week 14. However, we’ll await confirmation from the SEC on that one.
Texas’ SEC Championship Road Map
Aside from Georgia, Texas holds the simplest path to the SEC Championship among the three teams in contention. Win, and they’re in—no debates, no tiebreakers. A loss, however, throws everything into uncertainty, as tiebreaking procedures come into play.
For a clearer picture of those scenarios, take a look at Texas A&M’s path.
For now, the Longhorns can keep their eyes on the prize: earning their spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win against A&M.
- @ Texas A&M: 64.9%
- Texas’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 41.66%
Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map
Despite a few missteps this season, the teams Georgia lost to are officially out of contention, easing concerns about head-to-head tiebreakers. With Alabama and Ole Miss no longer in the mix, the Bulldogs are now locked into the SEC Championship Game regardless of the outcome between Texas and Texas A&M.
MORE: Understand the Full SEC Tiebreaking Procedures Ahead of Week 13
Here’s how it played out:
When Texas A&M fell to Auburn in Week 13, Georgia’s spot in the title game was secured.
This is because Georgia can only end up tied for second place with Tennessee alone (if A&M loses to Texas) or in a multi-team tie involving Texas, Texas A&M, and/or Tennessee (if A&M beats Texas).
Since Georgia defeated Tennessee earlier this season, they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vols, cementing their path to the SEC Championship Game.
If they tied with Texas, A&M, and/or Tennessee, it would skip the head-to-head tiebreaker as these four teams didn’t complete a round robin, and move to record against common opponents.
- Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M common opponents
- Mississippi State (all three won)
Florida (all three won)
- Mississippi State (all three won)
- Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee common opponents
- Mississippi State (all four won)
Florida (all four won)
- Mississippi State (all four won)
This then skips you down to tiebreaker No. 4, which is SEC opponent’s in-conference winning percentage this season.
- Texas A&M SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
- Georgia SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
- Texas SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
- Tennessee SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
In this instance, A&M nets the first spot and the three teams (or two teams if Tennessee loses) that remained tied head to the top of the tiebreakers once again.
MORE: Why Is Tennessee Eliminated From the SEC Championship Game?
No matter the results here, in this instance, Georgia beat both Texas and Tennessee in the regular season this year, meaning by stipulations set forth in the SEC tiebreakers, the Bulldogs would move on to face A&M.
- vs. Georgia Tech: 93.1%
- Georgia’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 49.47%
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map
If you’ve followed the Georgia roadmap above, you’ll see why A&M isn’t entirely out of the picture despite their Week 13 loss to Auburn. In fact, if they manage to beat Texas in Week 14, they’re in. This is all thanks to how the tiebreakers play out—and in the process, they’d also knock Texas out of the SEC Championship Game due to those very same tiebreakers.
Here’s how it breaks down: if A&M beats Texas, it forces at least a three-way tie for two spots. If Tennessee also wins, it becomes a four-way tie, though the Vols are largely a non-factor in this scenario.
In that case, A&M, Texas, Georgia, and/or Tennessee would move through the tiebreaker criteria until scenario No. 4 settles the debate. That tiebreaker evaluates each team’s combined conference opponent SEC winning percentage.
And as we see here, here is how this is settled right now:
- Texas A&M SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
- Georgia SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
- Texas SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
- Tennessee SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
That puts A&M into the Championship Game as the first-place seed as well. After battling out the remaining-team tiebreaker scenario, Georgia would subsequently join them in this situation.
- vs. Texas: 35.1%
- Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 8.60%
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