In an ideal world, teams don’t need a bowl game victory in order to reshape or redefine their season’s success. However, both the Kansas State Wildcats and Rutgers Scarlet Knights saw their seasons end on sour notes, and they’re hoping to parlay a bowl-game victory into higher hopes next season.
A loss in the Rate Bowl could seal 2024 as a down year. For the winner, however, momentum is on the line. Figure out which way you should lean in our Rutgers vs. Kansas State Prediction.
Rutgers vs. Kansas State Rate Bowl Betting Preview
All Rutgers vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -4.5 - Spread
Kansas State -7 - Moneyline
Kansas State -265, Rutgers +215 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
Thursday, Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m. ET - Location
Chase Field | Phoenix - How To Watch
ESPN
While both Rutgers and Kansas State have a few players entering the transfer portal, neither roster is in bad shape heading into the Rate Bowl. In fact, neither team will be lacking its stars. Accordingly, there hasn’t been much line movement compared to other games.
The only real story of interest regarding potential player or scheme changes is that Rutgers defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak has moved to become the head coach of the UMass Minutemen. Rutgers has yet to replace him.
Rutger’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Scarlet Knights, making them 4.5-point underdogs. That translates to a winning probability of 36.9%.
- vs. Kansas State: 36.9%
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Wildcats are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 63.1%. Kansas State has played well in bowls in the past and, on paper, the Wildcats are the better team.
- vs. Rutgers: 63.1%
Prediction for Rutgers vs. Kansas State
If you think bowl games aren’t important — just ask Kansas State’s Avery Johnson, who won the Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP in his second-career start last season, a performance that solidified the Wildcats’ decision not to push to keep Will Howard.
Johnson had his ups and downs this season, but he’s still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country. And again, just look at his one-game bowl sample size a year ago to understand that.
But for Rutgers, you need to be more worried about another player besides Johnson: DJ Giddens. The talented running back was key for the Wildcats this season. KSU went as he went, and they finished 6-1 when Giddens ran for 100 yards and only 2-3 when he didn’t.
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On Thursday, he might run … a lot.
Giddens was terrific this season, but Rutgers run defense was not; sometimes it’s that simple.
Rutgers struggled against the run all season, but in October, this unit collapsed. The Scarlet Knights struggled against every team that tried to run the ball consistently. The only thing that saved them down the stretch was that teams just didn’t run the ball against them.
They ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing five yards per carry. Fortunately, for Rutgers’ fans, they only faced off against teams that averaged 29.8 rush attempts per game — a figure which was the eighth-lowest in the country.
Unless Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman outsmarts himself, I expect the Wildcats to pound the rock and exploit the holes in the Rutgers defense.
Greg Schiano’s team just doesn’t have the horses to keep up, nor do they have the passing attack — led by Athan Kaliakmanis — to get back into any game that finds them behind on the scoreboard.
Rutgers’ lack of explosiveness on offense already puts the Scarlet Knights at a disadvantage due to limited possessions. Turnovers would all but end the Scarlet Knights’ hopes.
Kansas State pulls away with a comfortable win, but in the second half. The only question left is whether they’ll get enough help from Rutgers to push this point total to the over.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Rutgers 17
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