Week 13’s Fox Friday Night Football showcases a Big Ten clash between the 1-9 Purdue Boilermakers and the 4-6 Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing. With bowl eligibility on the line, the Spartans are fighting to keep their season alive, while the Boilermakers are hungry to snap their skid and salvage some pride.
Who comes out on top? Our Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction breaks it all down—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they close out the 2024 college football season.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan State -10.5 - Spread
Michigan State -14 - Moneyline
Michigan State -550, Purdue +410 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Spartan Stadium | East Lansing, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, overcast with showers possible, 14 mph winds - How to Watch
Fox
Friday night marks the 69th time that Purdue and Michigan State have faced off, although the two teams haven’t met since 2021. While the Boilermakers won that last matchup comfortably, the Spartans hold a 36-29-3 advantage heading into their Week 13 clash. Understandably, Michigan State is a substantial favorite to increase that head-to-head lead.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It is just the second time this season that the Spartans have been favored ahead of a game, and they won in both of those outings. The moneyline and spread are similar to their season-opener against the Florida Atlantic Owls, and while they weren’t able to cover in that game, they should against a Purdue team that is 2-8 ATS during the 2024 college football season.
Purdue’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Purdue has a 20.7% chance of beating Michigan State on Friday night. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Boilermakers’ disastrous season, accurately projecting their opening-day win and subsequent nine defeats.
Here are the win probabilities for Purdue’s final two games of the 2024 season:
- at Michigan State: 20.7%
- at Indiana: 1.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Boilermakers would end the year with a 1-11 overall record and go winless in Big Ten play. That would match the 2013 season as the worst in program history. Failing to win on Friday night could end head coach Ryan Walters’ tenure.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Michigan State has a 79.3% chance of beating Purdue on Friday night. Our metric has accurately predicted all the Spartans’ games this season, and the projection for their game against the Boilermakers is their third-best win probability of the year.
Here are the win probabilities for Michigan State’s final two games of the 2024 season:
- vs. Purdue: 79.3%
- vs. Rutgers: 49.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Spartans would end the year with a 5-7 record, including a 3-6 Big Ten campaign. Although it has been a difficult first season for Jonathan Smith in East Lansing, it would represent a one-win improvement compared to the previous year.
Prediction for Purdue vs. Michigan State
While it might not stand out as one of the marquee matchups on the Week 13 slate, Friday night’s clash between Purdue and Michigan State in East Lansing brings plenty of intriguing storylines. For the Spartans, this is a must-win game to keep their slim bowl hopes alive—anything less would shut the door on their postseason ambitions.
For Purdue, the stakes are even higher. The Boilermakers are still searching for their first FBS win of the season, and head coach Ryan Walters is under immense pressure with a 5-17 record at the helm. A loss here would only amplify the questions about his future. So, who has the edge, and where will this game be decided?
Michigan State has struggled across the board in their first season under head coach Smith, but the offense has been particularly underwhelming. Freshman quarterback Aidan Chiles has shown flashes of his potential but has been prone to costly turnovers in his first year as the full-time starter.
Even with Chiles and receiver Nick Marsh providing glimpses of a brighter offensive future, the Spartans have faced challenges both in the air and on the ground. Despite the addition of highly-touted transfer running back Kay’ron Lynch-Adams, the rushing attack hasn’t taken off, contributing to an offense that’s averaging just 19.4 points per game in 2024.
For Michigan State, however, there’s some relief in facing Purdue’s defense, which has been among the worst in the nation. Walters, brought in for his defensive acumen, has yet to make a significant impact, as the Boilermakers rank 131st nationally in scoring defense. They’ve allowed more passing yards per attempt than any other Big Ten team and surrendered 10 more rushing touchdowns than anyone else in the conference.
The struggles don’t stop there for Purdue. Offensively, they’ve managed just 17.2 points per game this season, partly due to a brutal schedule loaded with top Big Ten defenses. Injuries to quarterback Hudson Card have disrupted any consistency in the passing game, and while running back Devin Mockobee has been a bright spot, he can’t carry the load on his own.
Against Michigan State’s average defense, Purdue’s offensive woes may still persist.
Prediction: Michigan State 30, Purdue 14
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