A classic Pac-12 rivalry gets a fresh Big Ten twist as the Ducks head south to face the Bruins. The spread is sizable, but our Oregon vs. UCLA prediction breaks down which side to trust.
Oregon vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024.
- Spread
Oregon -24 - Moneyline
Oregon -2400, UCLA +1200 - Over/Under
54 - Game time
11 p.m. ET - Location
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, Wind 5 mph, low clouds - How to Watch
FOX
If Charles Dickens were a college football enthusiast, he might dub this clash “A Tale of Two Programs,” as it’s the best of times for the Ducks and the worst of times for the Bruins.
Oregon is finally living up to its preseason hype as a potential Big Ten title contender, while UCLA appears to be stuck in rebuilding mode following their Big Ten move and the exit of coach Chip Kelly.
Historically, these teams have hit the over in four of their last five meetings, making the 54-point total seem very achievable—especially with both offenses showing enough spark to prevent a defensive slugfest, even though Oregon clearly has the stronger defense.
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The real highlight here is the 24-point spread in favor of the Ducks. It’s a hefty margin for a conference matchup, and early public betting shows some caution, likely due to these factors.
Still, the Ducks have averaged 36 points per game and looked sharp last week, dropping 49 points on Oregon State. Dillon Gabriel is settling in well under center, and Oregon’s offense can strike in multiple ways.
On the other hand, UCLA has been sluggish, putting up just 15.3 points per game, with their highest output being 17 points against LSU last week. Both the over and the spread are solid plays in this matchup.
Prediction for Oregon vs. UCLA
Gabriel should keep up his efficiency, maintaining an 80% completion rate and six touchdowns without a pick. Despite Oregon’s early struggles, he’s been consistent.
Look for Jordan James to have an impact against UCLA. He’s averaging 6.43 yards per carry and has three touchdowns, with two coming last week as Oregon’s offensive line found its rhythm. Though UCLA’s defense holds teams to 3.25 yards per carry, they’ve allowed three rushing scores to pass-heavy teams, giving James a solid chance to shine.
Watch the matchup between receivers Rico Flores and Tez Johnson. Flores needs a strong showing from Ethan Garbers, who has been erratic with four interceptions and just three touchdowns, completing 56.7% of his throws. If Garbers doesn’t step up, the Bruins could be in for a rough day.
UCLA’s turnovers have been costly, sitting at -3 in turnover differential. Oregon’s issue has been converting drives into touchdowns, with just two red zone trips against Boise State, despite moving the ball well.
The Bruins’ defense has limited rushing yards but struggled on third down, allowing over 50% conversions. If they can’t replicate Boise State’s success of holding Oregon to 33% on third downs, it’ll be tough to stay competitive.
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UCLA has to find a way to do what Boise State did and hold the Ducks to just 33% on third downs if they want to have a chance.
Ultimately, the spread may seem large, but it could be even bigger if Oregon had been at full strength all season.
Prediction: Oregon 41, UCLA 17
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