The Ohio Bobcats and Miami (OH) RedHawks are set to take their storied Battle of the Bricks rivalry to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game, promising one of the most hard-fought matchups of college football’s championship weekend.
Who will emerge victorious? Our Ohio vs. Miami (OH) prediction breaks down the latest odds, win probabilities, and projects the winner of the MAC Championship Game.
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Betting Preview
All Ohio vs. Miami (OH) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN FPM Spread is from the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami (OH) -0.5 - Spread
Miami (OH) -2.5 - Moneyline
Miami (OH) -135, Ohio +114 - Over/Under
44 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Ford Field | Detroit, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
32 degrees, cloudy and cool, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN
Saturday marks the 101st edition of the Battle of the Bricks, and thanks to college football conference realignment, it’s the first time that Ohio and Miami (OH) have done battle in the MAC Championship Game. After their 30-20 regular season win, the second successive for the program in the rivalry, the RedHawks carry a 56-42-2 head-to-head advantage into the title game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
As a result, Miami (OH) is a marginal favorite heading into the MAC Championship Game. DraftKings makes the RedHawks just shy of a field goal favorite, but the CFN FPM projects a closer game. Ohio has covered the spread in each of the last five, including as a +1 underdog against the Toledo Rockets.
Miami (OH) hasn’t lost as a favorite this year, but could that change?
Ohio’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Ohio has a 49.4% chance of beating the RedHawks on Saturday afternoon. Our metric accurately projected the team’s loss to Miami (OH) earlier this year, but the Bobcats are much closer to their opponent than in that fixture.
- vs. Miami (OH): 49.4%
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Miami (OH) has a 50.6% chance of beating Ohio on Saturday afternoon in Detroit. It’s worth noting that our metric made the program just a three-point favorite for the regular season matchup against the Bobcats, a game they won by 10.
- vs. Ohio: 50.6%
Prediction for Ohio vs. Miami (OH)
If playing for a MAC title wasn’t already monumental, the Battle of the Bricks rivalry adds even more intensity to this showdown between Ohio and Miami (OH). Everything about this matchup screams drama, and it’s set to be one of the closest games of the weekend. If it were played on a frigid, snowy Tuesday night, it would be a poetic end to the Mid-American season.
Ohio enters Ford Field on a five-game winning streak, boasting the better overall record at 9-3. But Miami (OH) has been on an even hotter run, riding a seven-game win streak into the championship. Their 8-4 record includes three losses to Power Four opponents, underscoring their toughness. They’ve been the class of the MAC this season, so who will have the edge and emerge as the 2024 Mid-American Conference champion?
It’s no surprise that Miami (OH) is favored by the oddsmakers and metrics. Their defense has been relentless, cementing their spot in the title game with a dominant shutdown of Bowling Green in the regular-season finale. They’ve allowed just 17.3 points per game this season, holding opponents to 12 or fewer in their last three contests.
Linebacker Matthew Salopek anchors the RedHawks’ defense. The senior has surpassed 100 tackles in four straight seasons, but his impact goes beyond sheer numbers. Salopek is a game-changer in all facets, excelling as a run-stopper in the backfield and snagging three interceptions this year to showcase his versatility.
Salopek isn’t the only defensive standout. Edge rusher Brian Ugwu has terrorized offensive lines, logging 14 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks this season. Meanwhile, defensive back Raion Strader leads the nation with 17 pass breakups and has cemented himself as one of the MAC’s premier cover corners.
The RedHawks’ secondary has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (7) in the conference while snagging the second-most interceptions (11). Opposing quarterbacks have struggled mightily, completing just 57.4% of their passes for a meager 5.5 yards per attempt.
If defense wins championships, Miami (OH) appears well-positioned. But Ohio’s defense isn’t far behind. The Bobcats have allowed just 18.7 points per game, with no opponent scoring more than 21 during their five-game streak. Their 41-0 shutout of Kent State and a stifling performance against Toledo—holding them to seven points—underscore their dominance.
Ohio’s run defense is among the nation’s best, allowing just 97.0 rushing yards per game and 3.13 yards per carry. They’ve conceded the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the MAC. Since letting Keyon Mozee rush for 111 yards and a touchdown earlier in the season, they’ve kept every opponent under 150 rushing yards.
While Miami (OH) quarterback Brett Gabbert is one of the MAC’s top signal-callers, the RedHawks’ offense leans heavily on Mozee. The star running back leads the MAC with 1,045 rushing yards and has eclipsed 100 yards in four of his last five games. If Ohio can contain him on Saturday, it could shift the momentum.
The outcome of the MAC Championship may hinge on Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro. Miami (OH) stymied the dual-threat earlier in the year, but Navarro has found his groove over the past three weeks. His growing chemistry with wide receiver Coleman Owen could prove pivotal in a game that feels destined to come down to the wire.
Prediction: Ohio 21, Miami (OH) 18
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