Find me someone who foresaw an undefeated Navy Midshipmen squaring off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a late-October showdown with College Football Playoff stakes, and I’ll show you a tall tale. Yet here we are, with one of Week 9’s most anticipated matchups as the two teams get ready to clash at MetLife Stadium.
Our Notre Dame vs. Navy preview breaks down everything you need to know, from the latest betting lines to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Navy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -14 - Spread
Notre Dame -14 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -600, Navy +440 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Metlife Stadium | East Rutherford, NJ - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, partly sunny, 10 mph - How to Watch
ABC
A long-time rivalry game, Notre Dame enters the 2024 edition with an 80-13-1 head-to-head advantage against Navy. After beating up on the Midshipmen overseas to start the 2023 college football campaign, the Fighting Irish are on a six-game win streak against the Week 9 foes.
Can Marcus Freeman’s team continue that trend against a Brian Newberry-led Navy team?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The CFN FPM makes the Fighting Irish a two-touchdown favorite, while the official DraftKings odds give Navy a slightly better shot at winning. Although the Irish have covered the spread in their last two, they’ve been spotty this season, with twice failing to cover as a double-digit favorite.
After they didn’t cover in Week 1, Navy has covered ever since during their undefeated run.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Notre Dame has an 84.2% chance of beating Navy on Saturday. The Fighting Irish have rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois and won every game since by at least one touchdown.
- vs. Navy (neutral site): 84.2%
- vs. Florida State: 93.9%
- vs. Virginia: 87.2%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 87.4%
- at USC: 65.1%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Fighting Irish will end the year with an 11-1 record. The program is currently ranked 12th in the AP Poll, which wouldn’t be good enough for a College Football Playoff berth. However, if they win out as projected here, they should end the year comfortably in playoff contention.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM only gives Navy an 15.8% chance of beating Notre Dame in Week 9. While the Midshipmen are a significant underdog, they overcame the odds to beat the Memphis Tigers earlier in the season.
- vs. Notre Dame (neutral site): 15.8%
- at Rice: 73%
- at USF: 50.8%
- vs. Tulane: 47.5%
- at East Carolina: 75.3%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 51.2%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Midshipmen would end the campaign with a 10-2 record, dropping games to Notre Dame and the Tulane Green Wave. That would match the program’s best regular season record, and with a 7-1 record in the AAC, would also match their best conference record with the potential to land a place in the AAC Championship Game.
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Navy
Notre Dame vs. Navy takes the spotlight on ABC this week, giving the undefeated Midshipmen a national stage to showcase their electrifying, unique option offense for the first time this season. The Fighting Irish, eager to bounce back from an earlier loss to a Group of Five foe, are poised to bring their A-game.
This showdown promises the thrill of tradition fused with high stakes. Can the Midshipmen pull off an upset, or will Notre Dame’s power prove too much? We dive into the key matchups and break down who holds the upper hand.
Navy’s rise as a national powerhouse has been a defining story of the season. Offensive coordinator Drew Cronic has revitalized their attack, crafting a dynamic scheme that has soared in 2024. Known for their ground prowess, they’re now fourth in rushing nationally, but their offense goes beyond the run.
Quarterback Blake Horvath has emerged as a legitimate Heisman contender, dangerous both through the air and on the ground with explosive 90-yard touchdown sprints. With an offensive line allowing just 0.5 sacks per game and playmakers like Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich, Navy averages an impressive 44.8 points per game.
Defensively, Navy is excelling under seasoned guidance. They sit second nationally in turnover margin (+2.0 per game), with Dashaun Peele recently racking up two pick-sixes against Charlotte. Rayuan Lane III adds strength to the secondary, snagging multiple interceptions, including his own pick-six.
The Midshipmen also rank among the top 50 in sacks and tackles for loss, driven by standout Justin Reed and All-American candidate linebacker Colin Ramos. Their red zone defense has been rock-solid, allowing touchdowns on only 42.11% of opponents’ trips, holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game.
On the other side, Notre Dame’s defense is just as tough.
Allowing just 11.9 points per game, they rank in the top 30 for rush defense (113.4 yards per game), pass defense (165.9 yards per game), and total defense (279.0 yards per game).
Navy’s run-heavy offense brings a unique challenge, but Notre Dame hasn’t let a single rusher hit the 100-yard mark this season. With Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills combining for 8.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks, the Irish defensive front is no easy wall to break.
Though losing cornerback Benjamin Morrison hurts, Notre Dame’s defense remains well-equipped to counter Navy’s attack. Offensively, the Irish boast a formidable run game, with four different ball carriers averaging over six yards per carry.
Look for Riley Leonard to find the end zone with his legs, in what’s sure to be a close and competitive Notre Dame win.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Navy 23
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