The Battle for the Axe stands as the oldest rivalry in the FBS, and this season, the stakes couldn’t be higher—at least for one side. The Wisconsin Badgers head into their showdown with the Minnesota Golden Gophers with their bowl streak—the longest active in the nation—hanging by a thread after a tough season in the revamped Big Ten.
Who will come out on top? Our Minnesota vs. Wisconsin preview breaks it all down, from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs in this climactic finale to the 2024 college football regular season.
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Minnesota -1 - Moneyline
Wisconsin -110, Minnesota -110 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, WI - Predicted Weather at Kick
21 degrees, sunny, 16 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Friday marks the 134th edition of the Battle for the Axe (or Slab of Bacon), and the rivalry has been one of the closest and longest-running. After the Badgers’ two-touchdown win a year ago, the program holds a slender 63-62-8 advantage over its bitter rival. The Minnesota vs. Wisconsin odds are as close as you’d expect, with the Badgers a one-point favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Wisconsin has actually flourished when favored this fall, holding a 5-1 record when expected to win ahead of the game. However, they’re coming off a defeat to the Nebraska Cornhuskers, where they were the moneyline favorite. Minnesota has failed to cover as a single-score underdog this year and has lost their last two games, but our prediction holds some positivity for the Gophers.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM sees little separating these teams, but the Golden Gophers could clinch a winning season with a win. Our metric has Minnesota as the slightest of favorites, with a winning probability of 50.6%
- at Wisconsin: 50.6%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
Wisconsin struggled this year when starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down. Now, Luke Fickell and company are seeking a win to continue the Badgers’ FBS-long 22-year bowl streak. They’ll have a 49.4% chance to win at home, per our metric.
- vs. Minnesota: 49.4%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
One of the best parts of The Battle for the Axe is how competitive it usually is, and 2024 is no exception.
On paper, Minnesota has the edge. The Golden Gophers are coming off a narrow loss to Penn State, another chapter in their season-long struggle to finish winnable games. Four of their five losses this year have come by just three points or less.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, is in freefall. After a 5-2 start, the Badgers have dropped four straight and are dangerously close to missing bowl eligibility despite having five chances to secure that sixth win.
Neither team has found consistency in the passing game, and with freezing temperatures and strong winds expected, moving the ball through the air won’t get any easier. That kind of weather pushes me toward the team with the better ground game.
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When Darius Taylor gets going for the Gophers, the offense follows. In their losses, he’s averaged under 40 yards per game, but in wins, he’s cleared 60 yards in all but one. Taylor will be a key factor here.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, hasn’t figured out its offensive identity. The Air Raid experiment under Phil Longo has fallen flat, and with him out, there’s no clear direction. The Badgers have leaned on a committee approach in the backfield, but it hasn’t been enough—they’ve averaged just 17 points per game over their last five outings.
I’m backing Minnesota in this one. With Taylor leading the way on the ground and Max Brosmer avoiding critical mistakes under center, the Gophers should have what it takes to grind out a win. It won’t be pretty—it rarely is in this rivalry—but I expect Minnesota to take home the Axe.
For those betting, I’d sprinkle the under. Wisconsin’s offense is mistake-prone and likely to struggle again in these conditions. Take the Gophers and the under in what should be a gritty, old-school Big Ten battle.
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Wisconsin 19
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