This week, Conference USA steps into the national spotlight as the UTEP Miners head to Bowling Green on Thursday night to face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Will Scotty Walden’s squad notch their first win of the season, or can Tyson Helton’s Hilltoppers keep their strong start to conference play rolling under the weekday lights?
Our UTEP vs. Western Kentucky preview provides the answers, updated betting odds, and a look at the Miners’ and Hilltoppers’ win probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
UTEP vs. Western Kentucky Betting Preview
All UTEP vs. Western Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Kentucky -13 - Spread
Western Kentucky -20 - Moneyline
Western Kentucky -1100, UTEP +700 - Over/Under
56 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium | Bowling Green, KY - Predicted Weather at Kick
44.6 degrees, clear and chilly, 2.5 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Thursday night marks the fifth showdown between these two teams, and Western Kentucky holds a flawless 4-0 record dating back to their first encounter in 2014. Aside from a 40-16 blowout in 2018, UTEP has managed to keep it close, with three of the matchups decided by a single score—including a nail-biting one-point finish in 2017. But don’t count on a repeat of that tight contest this time around.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) might have it slightly closer than the -19 spread offered by DraftKings, but both are indicative of how far apart the programs are heading into Week 7. Not only are UTEP winless this year, but they’ve also covered the spread just once in 2024. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 4-1 against the spread and on a run of four consecutive games covering. The points spread is set high, but with UTEP’s defense, the Hilltoppers may drive the over
UTEP’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, UTEP has a 17.2% chance of winning this CUSA clash. The Miners have only been favored by our metric in one game so far this season, and they lost that to FCS Southern Utah.
This is comfortably UTEP’s most difficult conference game. Here is how the Miners’ remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at Western Kentucky: 17.2%
- vs. FIU: 44.4%
- at Louisiana Tech: 49.2%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 48.8%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 73.4%
- at Tennessee: 1%
- at New Mexico State: 49.2%
If those winning percentages hold true, UTEP’s only win of the season will come against first-year FBS outfit Kennesaw State. They would end the season with a 1-11 record, the worst for the program since 2019.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, the CFN FPM gives the Hilltoppers an 82.8% chance of winning on Thursday night. It’s worth noting that the FPM correctly predicted Louisiana Tech’s 3-2 start to the season, although the line was significantly shorter than the final result against Alabama and had Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog to Boston College.
Here are Western Kentucky’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. UTEP: 82.8%
- at Sam Houston: 52.8%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 92.1%
- at New Mexico State: 74.6%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 81.1%
- at Liberty: 38.1%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 70.3%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Western Kentucky would finish the season with a 9-3 overall record and a 7-1 CUSA record. That should comfortably put them in the conference championship game, likely a rematch of their clash with the Liberty Flames. The CFN FPM gives the Hilltoppers a 17.7% chance of winning the conference.
Prediction for UTEP vs. Western Kentucky
After a disastrous start to Walden’s tenure in El Paso, the winless Miners head to Bowling Green for a Thursday night showdown with a Hilltoppers squad eyeing the top of the conference. It’s a matchup between two teams on completely different paths, and our UTEP vs. Western Kentucky prediction doesn’t offer much hope for the struggling Miners.
Western Kentucky will be rocking a special midweek look, featuring helmets that might be the most stunning you’ll see all season. While their appearance won’t impact the scoreboard, it aligns perfectly with the mantra, “look good, feel good, play good.” Not that the Hilltoppers need any more swagger—they’re already one of the best teams in CUSA.
In their conference opener, Helton’s squad racked up nearly 50 points, and they have every reason to believe they can repeat that against UTEP. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp leads the conference in completion percentage and has been effective at distributing the ball across their offense.
Five different players have double-digit catches and over 100 receiving yards, with Kisean Johnson setting the pace with four touchdowns.
The Miners’ defense is ripe for the taking through the air, allowing the third-highest completion rate to opposing QBs in the conference (66.7%) and managing just one interception across five losses.
While they rank first in CUSA in yards per game allowed, don’t be deceived—they face an average of just 25.2 pass attempts per game, one of the lowest rates nationally.
On the other side of the ball, UTEP’s offense is one of the weakest in college football, averaging only 15.8 points per game, which ranks 125th in the nation. The run game is almost nonexistent, with just two rushing touchdowns and an average of 2.9 yards per carry.
Quarterback play has been equally concerning—Skyler Locklear has more interceptions than touchdowns, and Cade McConnell completed just 53.6% of his passes last week.
The Western Kentucky defense isn’t without its flaws, giving up more passing plays of 10+ yards and allowing an average of 25.2 points per game—though that figure is skewed by facing Alabama. Still, they have playmakers like Upton Stout in the secondary and disruptors like Terrion Thompson and Kylan Guidry up front.
They might not be the best defense in the nation, but they won’t need to be against UTEP on Thursday night.
Prediction: UTEP 20, Western Kentucky 45
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