The 13th-seeded Yale Bulldogs and fourth-seeded Texas A&M Aggies will meet in the first round in the South Region on Thursday afternoon. The Bulldogs are looking for their second consecutive upset win in March.
Yale upset the Auburn Tigers last season and will be aiming to take down another SEC squad this season. Meanwhile, the Aggies have their sights set on a deep tournament run. Find out who we predict to win the game along with breaking down the spread, total, and money line bets.
All Yale vs. Texas A&M odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 20, 2025.
- Spread
Texas A&M -7.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -330, Yale +260 - Over/Under
139.5 Points - Game Time
Thursday, March 20, 7:25 p.m. ET - Location
Ball Arena | Denver, CO - How To Watch
TBS
Yale has been terrific in terms of covering this season, holding a 17-10-1 record ATS. In the non-conference portion of their schedule, they’ve gone 8-3-1 ATS — but they’ve only covered two of five outings to finish the season.
Texas A&M has covered at an even rate, covering 16 of their 32 games the season. They did begin the season with an 8-4-1 record ATS in non-conference games but have only covered two of their last seven games.
Scoring nearly 82.0 ppg, the Bulldogs are a high-scoring team but only 14 of their 28 games have gone over this season, with five of their past six games going under.
The Aggies have gone under in 19 of their 32 games this season — yet the over has been the correct play in five of their last six contests.
Yale vs. Texas A&M Preview
Yale enters this matchup with a 22-7 overall and 15-1 conference record, claiming the Ivy League regular-season title and conference tournament championship, ensuring a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M took their fair share of lumps in the vaunted SEC, finishing 11-7 in conference and with a 22-10 overall record. They finished fifth in the conference standings but were upset in the second round of the conference tournament by the Texas Longhorns in double overtime.
Guard Wade Taylor IV scored 29 points in that game on 17 of 18 from the free throw line, but it wasn’t enough.
The 6’0″ senior runs the show for the Aggies, averaging team-highs with 15.7 ppg and 4.3 apg. His dual abilities of three-point shooting, getting to the rim, and drawing fouls make him an extremely tough matchup.
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Backcourt mate, fellow senior Zhuric Phelps puts in 14.1 ppg and grabs 5.0 rpg — although he managed just eight points on three of 19 shooting from the field in the loss to the Longhorns. If he produces another stinker like that, the Aggies may be in trouble due to the firepower the Bulldogs possess.
It all starts with senior guard John Poulakidas, who scores in a variety of ways but excels from deep. He shoots 40.9% from beyond the arc and nails 3.2 trey-balls per game. His 19.2 ppg led the Ivy League by nearly two points.
Ivy League Player of the Year Ben Mbeng is a terrific defender while also playing an excellent all-around game offensively, averaging 13.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 5.6 apg. He consistently sets the table for Poulikidas and star big man Nick Townsend.
A junior, Townsend is a tremendous player in the post. He scores 15.4 ppg and grabs 7.2 rpg while being an offensive hub down low, notching 3.6 apg.
The Aggies can’t take this game lightly, as the Bulldogs have been here before and know what it takes to pull off a big upset.
Although the Bulldogs have tended to go under the point total as of late, they’ve shown to be a high-scoring team when all things are clicking. On the other side, Texas A&M isn’t particularly explosive outside of Taylor IV. But the point total being set at 139.5 points is simply too low.
I don’t expect these teams to blow by that number, but it should be passed comfortably in the end. Take the over of 139.5 points, as these teams will put some points on the board — Yale has consistently done it and has a subpar defense that the Aggies will find ways to exploit.
As I’ve said, the Bulldogs have been here before. They know exactly what it takes to pull off a first-round upset — over an SEC team, no less. But the conference was a different animal this season.
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It’s hard to see Texas A&M not coming out with a win in this one after playing an extremely tough SEC schedule for the past three months. Yale will keep it close, even covering the spread of 7.5 points, but the Aggies will close this one out in the final minutes. They’ll survive the first round and advance to face the winner of Michigan and UC San Diego.
Picks: Over 139.5 Points, Yale +7.5
Prediction: Texas A&M 75, Yale 70
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