The No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers will visit the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans on Sunday afternoon in East Lancing, with huge implications regarding Big Ten standings.
With a win, the Spartans would continue to hold first place in the conference standings, and a Badgers’ loss would drop them into a three-way tie for third place. But a win for Wisconsin would be pivotal, bringing them to within one game of the Spartans and Michigan Wolverines at the top of the conference.
We’ll predict this intriguing matchup below and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Wisconsin vs. Michigan State odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, March 2, 2025.
- Spread
Michigan State -4.5 - Moneyline
Michigan State -195, Wisconsin +165 - Over/Under
146.5 Points - Game Time
Sunday, March 2, 1:30 p.m. ET - Location
Breslin Center | East Lansing, MI - How To Watch
CBS
Wisconsin enters Breslin Center with an excellent 19-9 record ATS this season, including 13-4 in Big Ten play. On the road, they’ve gone 7-2 ATS and have covered in six of their last seven games.
The Spartans have also proven themselves to be consistent coverers, compiling an 18-9-1 overall record ATS. That’s with a 12-4-1 cover record in conference play and having covered their last four outings.
With an above-average offense, the Badgers have tended to exceed their listed point total this season, with 17 of their 28 games going over. However, that number has been only eight of 17 conference matchups. But with the help of terrific offensive outings as of late, three of their last four games have reached the over.
On the other hand, Michigan State has a significant lean towards the under throughout the season. 19 of their 28 contests have gone under, including five of 17 in the Big Ten. The under has been the successful play for the Spartans’ last five games and eight of their previous nine.
Preview for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
Michigan State will be at home in its first and only regular-season meeting with Wisconsin. The Spartans hold a 23-5 overall record and 14-3 in Big Ten play. Currently, they are tied for first place with Michigan.
The Badgers have a 22-6 overall and 12-5 conference record, with sole possession of third place in the standings. With a win, they’ll moved one game closer to being near the top. A loss, on the other hand, could prove catastrophic, as the possibility rises of them finishing fifth or even sixth in the end-of-season standings.
Their star guards, senior John Tonje and sophomore John Blackwell, will do everything they can to prevent that.
Tonje is the head of the snake for Wisconsin, averaging the fifth-most points in the Big Ten at 19.5 ppg on 48.0% shooting from the field. He also contributes 4.9 rpg and 1.8 apg.
Blackwell is a secondary scorer but can step into a bigger role, as evidenced by his 24-point outburst against the Washington Huskies during the team’s last outing. During the season, he pours 15.2 ppg, grabs 5.0 rpg, and distributes it to the tune of 2.2 apg.
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Sophomore forward Nolan Winter provides a solid presence down low, adding 9.8 ppg and a team-high 5.7 rpg.
Wisconsin will have their hands full with the renewed offensive attack that the Spartans have fielded recently. That’s been led by freshman guard Jase Richardson, who, after beginning the season on the bench, has come into his own as of late.
Over Richardson’s last six games, he’s averaging 16.8 ppg, including a 29-point performance against the Oregon Ducks, powering a huge comeback victory. His dynamic scoring has added a new dimension to this Michigan State squad that already possesses a stingy defense.
Senior guard Jaden Akins, the Spartans’ leading scorer, is averaging 12.7 ppg, but he’s better suited as a secondary or tertiary scorer behind Richardson. Akins has numerous double-figure scoring nights but only one 20-point outing since late November.
The defense is powered in part by 6’9″ junior forward Jaxon Kohler, who constantly is mixing it up on that end.
Michigan State is on a roll, entering with a four-game win streak — but so are the Badgers, who have won six of their last seven games. College basketball fans will be in for a good one on Sunday afternoon.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
Tom Izzo’s Spartans team has excelled defensively this season, with a huge reflection being in their over/under track record of 9-19. As previously mentioned, they’ve gone under the listed point total in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine.
Combine that with Wisconsin having only gone over eight times in 17 conference games and the under of 146.5 points is an enticing bet. I’d predict that’d hit, as both defenses will come out to play in this high-stakes Big Ten game.
In terms of who covers, both teams have been extremely good ATS.
The Badgers have a 19-9 record in ATS, while Michigan State holds an 18-9-1 record in ATS. There’s not much to glean from their conference and home/away cover records, as they’re each excellent in both categories.
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They’re also both hot as of late, with Wisconsin covering six of their last seven and the Spartans covering each of their last four games.
It is hard to take one side, but I’d go with the Badger’s side of the line. I believe it will be a close, hard-fought contest — taking Wisconsin +4.5 allows them to either pull out the win or suffer a close loss. Either way, the bet would be successful.
Taking Michigan State -4.5 requires ending in a two-possession game or more. Since I don’t anticipate it’ll end that way, I’d take Wisconsin, even if I don’t necessarily predict that they’ll win the game.
Picks: Under 146.5 Points, Wisconsin +4.5
Prediction: Michigan State 68, Wisconsin 67
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