I spend a lot of time putting together these March Madness profiles. Every week, I run the data for every D-I team, and after overtaking Auburn on Jan. 8, the Duke Blue Devils have not looked back regarding my handicapping of profiles for this time of year.
That’s the macro. Before getting the bracket in our hands, I looked at how all of these teams stack up against one another, but now that we only have 68 teams remaining, I can buckle down and tighten the research further.
And guess what? Nothing has changed.
Duke is the proud owner of the second best statistical profile since the pandemic, and while the market is high on them, I don’t believe their dominance level is being portrayed correctly.
The Elite March Madness Profile of the Duke Blue Devils
You’re aware of the brand. You’re aware of the five-star prospect that has NBA teams salivating. You’re aware of the expectations (17 straight seasons opening as a top-10 team).
Usually, that combination of factors makes for a great fade. Usually, that combination of factors results in all the future value being sucked out of the betting markets long before this tournament tips off.
However, we don’t typically get a down season in the ACC to run alongside one of the better conference seasons in history, courtesy of the SEC. Those two factors have kept Duke’s prices reasonable and will likely keep their championship pick percentage in check in the pools you are a part of.
From a strategic perspective, I’m fine with picking a popular team to cut down the nets, understanding that there will be plenty of stands to take in the first two weeks of the tournament.
If we can establish an edge in the early going, a chalk champion actually plays into our favor, as it gives us a great chance to hold onto a lead should we earn one via the early upset picks.
As for the team itself, these Blue Devils are, for my money, a combination of two recent champions, and I think that gives them juggernaut potential for this sprint to the finish line.
Similarities to the 2019 Virginia Cavaliers
Coming out of the UMBC year, UVA won 28 of 30 games during the regular season, with their two losses coming at the hands of … well, Duke. That’s a nice little line of symmetry, but that’s not why I am comparing these two teams.
That Virginia team simplified the game of basketball: “We are going to slow down every game and do the basic stuff better than you.”
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It’s not a sexy rallying cry, but it creates a very high floor on a game-to-game basis.
Some high-powered teams are reliant on three-point variance, and some (BYU and Wisconsin come to mind) teams are good enough to make that work, but there is no denying that these teams are sacrificing floor for ceiling (more on the Blue Devil ceiling to come).
2019 Virginia Cavalier Rankings
- Pace: 353rd
- Opponent Free Throw Rate: 16th
- Defensive Efficiency: 6th
- FT%: 54th
That free throw ranking doesn’t grade as absolutely elite (74.4%), but it was certainly a strength, and their accuracy was on full display when it counted most during their run to glory (17-of-20 in an overtime win over Purdue in the Elite Eight and 20-of-23 in the title game against Texas Tech).
2025 Duke Blue Devils Rankings
- Pace: 273rd
- Opponent Free Throw Rate: 23rd
- Defensive Efficiency: 5th
- FT%: 16th
The roster construction similarities are more for my next comparison, but I do like how an underrated piece fit into the picture for those Cavaliers, and I think the Blue Devils check a similar box.
In that 2019 season, Mamadi Diakite (7.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game in 21.8 minutes) was the type of glue piece that helped connect all the dots. In tournament play, the margins of error are slim—the level of competition ramps up and the scouting reports have that much more detail.
Oftentimes, that requires a secondary piece to step up, and this sort of skill set allows for a paint protector to fill that void. Diakite blocked multiple shots in five of six games while averaging 8.2 boards per game.
Khaman Maluach is five inches taller than Diakite, making the physical comparison a little clunky, not to mention that Cooper Flagg is also a member of this front court.
That said, the freshman big man averaged 8.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in 21 minutes this season, and while he might never be the top reason Duke wins a game, his ability to excel in his role makes him a big reason as to why this team rarely struggles for extended period of times and that holds tremendous value.
Similarities to the 2018 Villanova Wildcats
This is where things get a little more fun. Jalen Brunson led this Villanova team (18.9 points per game on 52.1% shooting from the field), while Cooper Flagg is the big man on campus at Duke (18.9 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field).
They are two very different players, I’ll grant you that, but their ability to control the game from their respective positions on a loaded roster is similar and is what raises the team ceiling in a significant way.
Forget the single-star thing, let’s build out a larger profile. That Villanova team had a trio of guards (Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Donte DiVincenzo) combined for 57.4% of their points per game while all shooting over 37% from distance and a cumulative free throw percentage of 79.4%.
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As for Duke, the trio of Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Tyrese Proctor are averaging 54.7% of their points per game while all shooting over 36.5% from deep and owning a cumulative free throw percentage of 83%.
Eerie, right?
Virginia was able to turn that profile into a title despite surrounding flaws, and the same was true for Villanova—Duke, instead, assumes the strengths without holding any glaring flaws.
They’ve built a monster.
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