Our West Virginia vs. Baylor prediction looks at a game far more anxiety-producing than fans would have thought at the beginning of the year. When the 2024-2025 college basketball season started, the Baylor Bears had high hopes that were immediately dashed in a 38-point loss to Gonzaga. Now, they’re likely in the NCAA tournament, but not as comfortably as they’d hope.
Similarly, the West Virginia Mountaineers are fighting for their tournament lives. A win for either of these teams would help ease concerns while the loser won’t feel confident that an NCAA tournament bid is a given.
West Virginia vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025.
- Spread
Baylor -8.5 - CSN Spread
Baylor -10 - Moneyline
Baylor -395, West Virginia +310 - Over/Under
135.5 Points - Game Time
Saturday, Feb. 14, 2 p.m. ET - Location
Foster Pavilion | Waco, Tex. - How To Watch
ESPN2
A preseason top 10 team, Baylor has to feel disappointed with its 15-9 record. The Bears still look like a likely tournament team, but the preseason goal wasn’t to simply make the tournament, it was to make a run in the tournament.
If you anonymously polled the Bears’ players and coaching staff, they’d probably tell you they didn’t expect a mid-February game to be so important. The Bears are just 7-6 in Big 12 play, including 2-3 in their last five. If the slump continues, it may be time to put them on the bubble, a place they didn’t expect to be.
They’re worse against the spread, just 5-8 in Big 12 play.
West Virginia is similarly mediocre, as the team is 2-5 in its last seven, both straight-up and ATS. Interestingly, the Mountaineers don’t do things halfway as they’ve just split one game in Big 12 play straight-up and against the spread. Typically, if the Mountaineers win, they cover; if they lose, they don’t.
West Virginia vs. Baylor CSN Power Rankings Line
Our metrics system is heavily in favor of the Bears, picking Baylor to win by nearly 10 points. However, West Virginia is a decent away team, going 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS. However, our power rankings have them ranked 95th, while the Bears are still a fringe top 25 team, per our metric.
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Baylor
For a team that has failed to reach preseason expectations, you’d think Baylor would be worse as a favorite. But, the Bears are 14-1 straight up when favored, and will be looking to pick up a 15th victory while favored Saturday.
That bodes well for the Bears on its home court, as an 8.5-point favorite.
Expect this game to be played at a snail’s pace, as these are two of the slowest teams in the country. Baylor is 304th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo while West Virginia is 331st. The difference between these offenses is that Baylor’s is lethally efficient (11th in offensive efficiency) while West Virginia’s is substantially less efficient.
That’s why the Mountaineers sit 273rd in points per game while the Bears are far more respectable in that category.
West Virginia’s defense is probably the better of the two teams, but has been hurt by their opponents’ uncharacteristically strong free throw shooting, something that shouldn’t last the whole season, at least theoretically.
The matchup I’m watching is on the boards, as neither of these teams are particularly adept at rebounding. I’m also interested to see if Baylor can break through the Mountaineers’ stellar perimeter defense.
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This game could go one of two ways. Either Baylor hits some shots early and the Mountaineers struggle to keep it close, or West Virginia stifles the Bears’ offense and wins late on the back of its passing.
The Bears’ defense is awful relative to its pace in giving up easy buckets off assists and I think the Mountaineers can exploit that in an upset win.
Given these teams’ slow pace and the relative lack of quick buckets were expected to see, I really like the under in this one, especially with a total in the high 130s.
Prediction: West Virginia 62, Baylor 58
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